You get a bonus - 1 coin for daily activity. Now you have 1 coin

Constructing utility functions under probabilistic uncertainty

Lecture



Since every probability distribution generates some random variable, we can say that every alternative x, chosen by the DM, generates a random variable ξx. Thus, one can compare not only the distributions themselves, but also the random variables they generate. A preference relation on the set of random variables can be constructed by means of utility functions or risk functions. The notion of a utility function for a decision-making problem under certainty was introduced in Section 7.3. In the case of a decision-making problem under uncertainty, this notion needs to be modified.

Definition

The utility U(ξ) of a random variable ξ, we shall call the mathematical expectation of the quantity u(ξ): Constructing utility functions under probabilistic uncertainty

if such a mathematical expectation exists. Here u — is some non-decreasing function. The function u itself, which assigns to each random variable its mathematical expectation, is called the utility function.

Remark. Sometimes the function u is subjected to stricter constraints, for example, the property of concavity .

The utility function generates a preference relation on the set of distribution functions ξ as follows

Constructing utility functions under probabilistic uncertainty

i.e., the random variable ξ is no less preferred than the other if and only if U(ξ) > U(c).

Example of a utility function. Consider the function u(ξ) = 1 − exp(−2ξ), ξ > 0. Then for a random variable ξ having a uniform distribution on the interval [0, 1], the utility will be the number Constructing utility functions under probabilistic uncertainty

Note!

Since the utility function is defined for each alternative x ∈ X} it is a function of t. Constructing utility functions under probabilistic uncertainty

Note that stochastic dominance relations can also be defined by means of utility functions. Let F(t) and G(t) — be the distribution functions of the random variables ξ,x and ξ' respectively, where x, x' ∈ X. It can be shown , that if the expectations U(x) and U(x) for all non-decreasing functions u, then:

C <, T7if and only if U(C) < U(7) for all increasing functions u;

C <n T7 if and only if U(C) < U(P) for all non-decreasing strictly concave functions u.

  • The property of concavity is often called the property of upward convexity. A function u is said to have the property of concavity if, for all x and y belonging to the domain of definition of the function u, and a € (0, 1), the following inequality holds: u(ax + (1 - a)y) > au(x) + (1-a)u(y).
  • Fishburn P. C. Convex stochastic dominance with continuous distribution functions //J. Econ. Theory. 1974. V. 6. P. 143-158.

Comments

To leave a comment

If you have any suggestion, idea, thanks or comment, feel free to write. We really value feedback and are glad to hear your opinion.
To reply

Lectures and tutorial on "Decision theory"

Terms: Decision theory