6. Decision Theory. LIST OF REFERENCES

Lecture



1. Larichev O.I. Theory and Methods of Decision Making, as well as A Chronicle of Events in Magic Lands: a textbook. – Moscow: Logos, 2000. – 296 p.

2. Rosen V.V. Mathematical models of decision making in economics. Study guide. – Moscow: Knizhny Dom «Universitet», Vysshaya Shkola, 2002. – 228 p.

3. Theory of forecasting and decision making. Edited by S.A. Sarkisyan. Moscow, Vysshaya Shkola, 1977. – 351 p.

4. Personal website of Pavel Gorsky [Electronic resource]. Access mode: www.gorskiy.ru.

5. Pareto-optimal solutions of multicriteria problems. Podinovsky V.V., Nogin V.D. – Moscow: Nauka. Main Editorial Board for Physical and Mathematical Literature, 1982. – 256 p.

6. Litvak B.G. Expert information: methods of obtaining and analysis. – Moscow: Radio i Svyaz, 1982. – 184 p.

7. Baldin, K.V. Mathematical methods in economics. Theory, sample variants of test assignments: Study guide / K.V. Baldin, O.F. Bystrov – Moscow: Publishing House of the Moscow Psychological Social Institute; Voronezh: Publishing House NPO «MODEK», 2003. – 54 p.

8. Keeney, R.L. Decision Making with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs / R.L. Keeney, H. Raiffa: translated from English / edited by I.F. Shakhnov. – Moscow: Radio i Svyaz, 1981. – 560 p.

9. Hanley, J. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) mythology: the state of the art / J. Hanley // Critical Reviews in Diagnostic Imaging. – 1989. - No. 29 (3). – P. 307-335.

10. Signal detection theory and ROC analysis / J. Egan. - New York: Academic Press, 1975.

11. Ryabinin I.A. Reliability and safety of structurally complex systems. St. Petersburg: Politekhnika, 2000. – 248 p.

12. Solozhentsev E.D. Scenario-based logical-probabilistic risk management in business and engineering. – St. Petersburg: Business Press, 2004. 432 p.

13. Andreichikov, A.V. Analysis, synthesis, planning of decisions in economics / A.V. Andreichikov, O.N. Andreichikova. – Moscow: Finansy i Statistika, 2001. – 368 p.

14. Shelobaev, S.I. Mathematical methods and models in economics, finance, business: A study guide for universities / S.I. Shelobaev. – Moscow: YUNITI-DANA, 2000. – 367 p.

15. Knowledge representation and knowledge use / Edited by Ueno H., Ishizuka M. et al. – Moscow: Mir, 1989. – 220 p.

Comments

To leave a comment

If you have any suggestion, idea, thanks or comment, feel free to write. We really value feedback and are glad to hear your opinion.
To reply

Lectures and tutorial on "Decision theory"

Terms: Decision theory

Decision theory
INTRODUCTION TO THE THEORY OF DECISION MAKING
Building scales for assessing criteria
PROBLEMS OF DECISION-MAKING IN CONDITIONS OF DETERMINATION
4. DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY
4.1 Decision making under conditions of stochastic uncertainty, when conducting experiments is impossible
4.2 Decision Making under Conceptual Uncertainty Based on AiA Saaty
4.3 Making decisions using the apparatus of the theory of fuzzy sets
5 GROUP DECISION-MAKING METHODS
6. Decision Theory. LIST OF REFERENCES
The Bus Stop Dilemma (the Latecomer Dilemma) — a Thought Experiment
The Prisoner's Dilemma (the Bandit Dilemma)
Stevenson's Satanic Bottle Paradox (the Devil's Bottle, the Magic Bottle, the Bottle Imp paradox)
Stevenson's Window Dilemma
METHODOLOGICAL FOUNDATIONS OF DECISION MAKING
BASIC CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS of decision theory — system, control and situation
The managerial decision as an element of system control
Constructing a managerial decision on the basis of its life cycle
Defining the goal of a managerial decision and specifying the criteria that implement it
Developing a managerial decision
Adopting a managerial decision
Implementing a managerial decision
Decision theory — concluding remarks
FEATURES OF THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
Decision-making strategies
Multi-criteria decision-making strategies
Compensation strategies
Elimination strategies
Psychological aspects of decision making
Short-term and long-term memory
Psychological variants of decision making
Psychological phenomena
The specifics of individual decision development
The environment as a factor giving rise to psychological behaviour phenomena in people
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SPECIFICS OF MANAGEMENT ON THE FORMATION OF MANAGERIAL DECISIONS
Factors that determine the specifics of the controlled system under study and influence other control parameters
Factors in the formation of the decision maker's goal
Factors determined by the specifics of the managerial-decision formation procedure
Useful information and recommendations for constructing a managerial decision
INFORMATION DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
Data, information, knowledge and decisions
Feedback-based regulation
Levels and functions of information systems
Classes of problems solved by information systems
Types of information and categories of information systems
Transaction processing systems and knowledge work systems
Office automation systems
Management information systems
Decision support systems
Main characteristics and composition of an IDSS and the problems it solves
Features of the business decision-making process
OLAP technologies
Data Mining technologies
Statistical packages
Neural networks
Expert systems
Information systems supporting the work of an executive
Summary
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS: METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS
Defining the concept of a "decision support system"
Methodological aspects of creating a DSS. Possible outcomes of DSS operation
The structure of a decision support system
The structure of a DSS considered in the narrow sense
Summary
MATHEMATICAL FOUNDATIONS OF DECISION MAKING
THE GENERAL STATEMENT OF A DECISION PROBLEM: operations research, systems analysis and their interrelation
Mathematical measurement theory: basic definitions and concepts; attribute, indicator, criterion
Scales in measurement theory
The mathematical model of a problem situation. A problem situation and the general statement of a decision problem
The general statement of a decision problem under certainty
The preference relation of the decision maker
Binary relations
Decision making under certainty
Decision making under uncertainty
A classification of decision problems
Summary
PREFERENCE MODELLING. The mathematical model of preferences in decision problems
Binary relations
The utility function — its definition, study and characteristics; optimisation
Ways of specifying choice functions
A description of the mathematical model of preferences under probabilistic uncertainty
Constructing preference binary relations on a set of probability distributions
Constructing utility functions under probabilistic uncertainty
Constructing risk functions in a decision problem under probabilistic uncertainty
Decision rules in decision problems (DMP) under probabilistic uncertainty
A worked example of a decision problem under probabilistic uncertainty
Summary
MULTI-CRITERIA PREFERENCE MODELS. The mathematical model of a multi-criteria decision problem
Forming the set of criteria
Constructing preference relations for a multi-criteria decision problem
The aggregate criterion and indifference curves
Additive utility functions
Summary
PARETO OPTIMALITY. Pareto dominance
Pareto-optimal (efficient) vector estimates and alternatives, and their properties
Features of the structure of the Pareto–Edgeworth set; the preference cone and its geometric interpretation
The "cost–effectiveness" method
Conditions of Pareto optimality
Constructing and approximating the Pareto–Edgeworth set
Summary
The decision table: uses in software testing and in decision theory
The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)