3.2.3 Methods of analysis of the external environment

In the mid-1980s, half of large firms already conducted an organizational analysis of the external environment. According to Western experts, by 2000, 70% of large firms will conduct a similar analysis. It should be noted the particular relevance of this issue in the modern conditions of Russia.

Recently, a lot of attention has been paid to the problems of the organization’s environment and its impact on management, but it would be a mistake to try to analyze and take into account all environmental factors. The management of the organization should take into account primarily those factors that have a decisive influence on the organization.

One of the tools for such an analysis in the West is now offering the so-called SWOT analysis. CWOT is an abbreviated word formed from the initial English words "power" (capacity), "weakness" (weakness), "opportunities" (opportunity) and "threats" (treat). In accordance with this approach, the following factors must be analyzed to determine the state of a firm:

• power in relation to the external environment;
• weakness in relation to the external environment;
• opportunities arising from the external environment;
• threats arising from the external environment.

Then the tasks are to develop the company and reduce weaknesses in order to take advantage of opportunities and prevent threats.

In a market economy, the organization is considered as an open system, taking into account the influence of the external environment. Changes in the external environment lead to corresponding changes in management, which are manifested primarily in the organization of management as a form of the existence of management. Assessment of the state of environmental factors allows you to compare the state of the control system with the changed environment. However, such an assessment is extremely difficult.

There are several approaches to this issue. So B. Karlof proposes to carry out such an analysis on the basis of a scenario-description of future circumstances and be based on the selection of forecasts and proposals for future events ^* .

The scenario is usually used to predict possible structural changes in an industry and likely competitive situations. Usually it serves as a foundation for creative discussions, for strategic thinking.

The forecasts and proposals on which the scenario is built should include all factors relating to the future of the business.

One of the main advantages of the scenario is that the discussion can take into account both the most extreme and the most likely scenarios, based on the proposals and forecasts that are behind the scenario.

Below is an example scenario for a single car factory. In the scenario, an attempt was made to identify the significance of certain factors for the development department of the said enterprise.

Proposals for the main directions of development:

Economic situation

• on the threshold or on the way out of recession;
• purchasing power at the current level;
• less income differentiation;
• there will be no sharp changes in oil prices;
• there will be new industrial countries.

Political situation

• peace, stability;
• east wakes up;
• strengthening the position of the market economy.

Social situation

• greater equality between the sexes;
• higher level of education;
• healthy lifestyle;
• renaissance (rebirth) of the family;
• stressful living conditions;
• environmental pollution;
• environmental crisis;
• deep understanding of danger.

Scenario 1997-2001

1. New energy crisis will not be, but there is the possibility of higher energy prices.
2. A deeper understanding of the dangers of environmental pollution, the adoption of related decisions of an ecological nature.
3. The underdeveloped countries will now begin to develop their automobile industry and will put constant pressure on the market towards lower prices.
4. Japan will master the production of expensive cars. The emergence of new types of machines, such as "mini-vans".
5. The role of importers will decrease, the desire to focus on marketing and market support will increase.
6. Sociological and political factors will indicate the need for a clearer line of behavior in the field of ecology, caring for consumers and quality.
7. Overpopulation of large cities reaches critical limits, which will affect the behavior of citizens: they will refuse to use cars for commuting.
8. A higher degree of concentration and internationalization of the media. Advertising ^* will therefore become more monotonous. The role of television is increasing.
9. Active economic growth, which will be accompanied by a deeper understanding of the need to conserve resources. This will be conducive to the production of machines more economical than in the late 80s.
10. Political factors will contribute to stable growth and provide good opportunities for business development in Eastern Europe.
11. Preference will be given to an environmentally friendly vehicle. Eco-friendly and ergonomic production facilities will be most prevalent.
12. In the social sphere, greater equality between the sexes and the uniformity of tastes inherent in the generations of the 50s and 60s will be achieved, which will put the production of simpler and more reliable machines without any excesses.

The analysis of the external environment can be carried out on the basis of the methodology proposed by S. Bolotov in the form of four stages ^** .

1. Choosing a business, product or service. Determined trading niche. To do this, we study the sales volumes and satisfaction of demand, determine the market size, as well as the possibility of crowding out one product with others.
2. Evaluation of the actions of competitors. Opportunities for competitors to occupy this niche are determined. To do this, we study the work of similar enterprises in the field of technology, research, product quality, costs, methods of supply and sales of products or services.
3. Analysis of the business scheme. At this stage, the required resources and their availability in the markets are determined. The technology of production, the possibilities and methods of providing raw materials, materials, equipment, work premises, personnel, services and capital are studied.
4. Analysis of the overall environment of the organization. Significance for the organization of external factors of indirect impact is determined. At the same time, the current state of all components of the external environment is found out, trends in changes of these components are identified, the nature of changes and expectations for them are determined.

As a result of the analysis for each stage, quantitative indicators for evaluating all segments of the external environment are identified (see Table 2.3).

The analysis should be carried out separately by segments of the environment and separately for each partner. To do this, it is necessary to determine the primary indicators and the form of assessments.

T a b e and c a 2.3

The sequence and results of the analysis of the external environment

Baseline information is collected by enterprise experts or external consultants and filled in a specially designed questionnaire. It contains questions that reflect the nature of communication with a partner, the level of knowledge about him. Questionnaires filled out by several experts (preferably 5-6 people) are processed by averaging the estimates and partial transformations. The results are recorded in the assessment map in the form of twelve indicators:

1. segment,
2. zone,
3. communication volume
4. communication frequency
5. partner potential
6. supply opportunities (orders),
7. assessment of external factors (uncertainty, stability, rate of change),
8. management potential
9. transport component
10. partner's knowledge level
11. degree of organizational compliance,
12. information security.

The competitors are evaluated in a somewhat different way. Experts on the basis of primary information about competitors fill out a card for evaluating competitors.

The study of external conditions by experts allows them to designate the so-called profile of the current state of the general external environment, fixing the state of each component. Further, it is necessary to determine the past states of these components and to identify them on the basis of a comparison of current states with past trends in changes in external conditions. These trends will show, on the one hand, the direction of change, and on the other hand, can show the rate of change, i.e., the step size of change per unit time.

Along with this work, experts should assess the uncertainty of the identified states and indicate its reason, which lies either in the lack of information or in principle inability to obtain accurate information. It is also important to fix the accuracy and uniqueness of the expert's assessment, or to state the probability of an inaccurate assessment. This last reveals the degree of stability in assessing the significance of the factor under consideration.

At the final stage of the analysis of the external environment, the previously obtained indicators and evaluations are summarized in one document to determine the capabilities of an enterprise for the production and marketing of a product or service. It can be divided into the following sections: 1) niche volume, 2) external conditions, 3) assessment of external relations, 4) assessment of competitors, 5) assessment of its capabilities.

The niche volume is characterized by the number and composition of consumers, their locations, sales channels and the degree of competition.

The general external conditions of an enterprise are characterized by a profile of their current state in their area, trends in external factors, an assessment of uncertainty and stability of the environment, and a characteristic of expected changes.

Evaluation of competitors is necessary to establish the objectives of the organization. At the same time, it is necessary for the correction of the mechanism of management development. This section should show the potentials of competitors, their position in the external environment and establish the dominant factors of competition.

In the process of working on the fifth section to assess its capabilities, it is necessary to carefully ascertain the potential of the enterprise and only then can a full assessment of its capabilities be completed. Elucidation of the potential of the enterprise is based on the analysis of the internal environment of the organization.