You get a bonus - 1 coin for daily activity. Now you have 1 coin

Empirical Measure as a Random Process

Lecture



In probability theory , empirical measure is a random measure arising from a particular realization (usually finite) of a sequence of random variables . The precise definition is given below. Empirical measures are related to mathematical statistics .

The motivation for studying empirical measures is that it is often impossible to know the true underlying probability measure . We collect observations and compute relative frequencies . We can estimate or the associated distribution function by means of the empirical measure or the empirical distribution function, respectively. These are always good estimates under certain conditions. Theorems in the area of empirical processes provide the rate of such convergence. Empirical Measure as a Random ProcessEmpirical Measure as a Random ProcessEmpirical Measure as a Random ProcessEmpirical Measure as a Random Process

Definition

Let be a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables with values in a state space S with probability distribution P . Empirical Measure as a Random Process

Definition

The empirical measure P n is defined for measurable subsets of S and is given by

where is the indicator function and is the Dirac measure .Empirical Measure as a Random ProcessEmpirical Measure as a Random Process

Properties

  • For a fixed measurable set A , nP n ( A ) is a binomial random variable with mean nP ( A ) and variance nP ( A ) (1 - P ( A )).
    • In particular, P n ( ) is an unbiased estimator of P ( A ).
  • For a fixed partition of S , the random variables form a multinomial distribution with event probabilitiesEmpirical Measure as a Random ProcessEmpirical Measure as a Random Process Empirical Measure as a Random Process
    • The covariance matrix of this multinomial distribution .Empirical Measure as a Random Process

Definition

Empirical Measure as a Random Processis the empirical measure indexed by , the collection of measurable subsets of S .Empirical Measure as a Random Process

To generalize this notion further, note that the empirical measure maps measurable functions to their empirical mean , Empirical Measure as a Random Process Empirical Measure as a Random Process

Empirical Measure as a Random Process

In particular, the empirical measure of A is simply the empirical mean of the indicator function, P n ( ) = P n I A .

Empirical Measure as a Random Process

By the strong law of large numbers , P n ( converges) to P ( A ) almost surely for fixed A . Similarly converges to almost surely for a fixed measurable function . The problem of the uniform convergence of P n to P remained open until Vapnik and Chervonenkis solved it in 1968. Empirical Measure as a Random ProcessEmpirical Measure as a Random ProcessEmpirical Measure as a Random Process

If the class (or ) is a Glivenko – Cantelli class with respect to P, then P n converges to P uniformly over (or ). In other words, with probability 1 we have Empirical Measure as a Random ProcessEmpirical Measure as a Random ProcessEmpirical Measure as a Random ProcessEmpirical Measure as a Random Process

Empirical Measure as a Random Process

Empirical Measure as a Random Process

Empirical distribution function

Empirical distribution function

The empirical distribution function is an example of empirical measures. For real-valued iid random variables it is defined as Empirical Measure as a Random Process

Empirical Measure as a Random Process

In this case the empirical measures are indexed by the class. It has been shown that this is a uniform Glivenko – Cantelli class , in particular, Empirical Measure as a Random ProcessEmpirical Measure as a Random Process

Empirical Measure as a Random Process

with probability 1.

See also

  • Poisson random measure
  • random process
  • random walks
  • renewal process
  • the Cramér-Lundberg model
  • empirical measures
  • Poisson random measure

Comments

To leave a comment

If you have any suggestion, idea, thanks or comment, feel free to write. We really value feedback and are glad to hear your opinion.
To reply

Lectures and tutorial on "probabilistic processes"

Terms: probabilistic processes