Lecture
12.1. Concept, types, functions, conditions of occurrence and classification of risks. Concept of risk. Types of risks. Functions of risk. Conditions for the occurrence of risks. Classification of risk by scale; by aspect; by objectivity; by type; by the number of decision-makers; by level of costs.
12.2. Risk analysis and management. General principles of risk analysis. Stages of risk analysis. Qualitative risk analysis. Factors affecting the degree of risk. Object and subject of risk. Quantitative risk analysis. Methods of quantitative risk analysis: statistical method; method of analogies; method of expert assessments; decision tree construction method; combined method. Risk management.
12.3. Evaluation of complex systems based on utility theory. Utility of expected outcomes. Utility function in the presence of risk. Axioms of utility theory. Stages of determining the utility function.
Conditions for evaluating systems with discrete and continuous indicator values.
12.4. Decision tree method. Decision tree. Problem formulation. Building decision trees. Estimating the probabilities of environmental states. Setting payoffs. Solving the problem. Algorithm for using the method: initial decision point, possible actions, probability of events, expected outcome (payoff), calculating results for each alternative, comparing alternatives.
1. Define the concept of "risk".
2. Characterize the types, functions, and conditions for the occurrence of risks.
3. Give a classification of risks.
4. What are the general principles of risk analysis?
5. List the stages of risk analysis.
6. What does qualitative risk analysis consist of?
7. What factors affect the degree of risk?
8. Characterize the main methods of quantitative risk analysis.
9. How is risk management carried out?
10. How is utility theory used for decision-making? Explain the use of the theory with an example.
11. Characterize the decision tree method for decision-making.
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