Lecture
11.1. Causes, sources, factors and types of uncertainty in systems analysis problems. The role of uncertainty in systems analysis. Causes of uncertainty. Sources of uncertainty. External and internal causes of uncertainty. Types of uncertainty.
11.2. Information as a measure of uncertainty reduction. Information as a measure of uncertainty reduction. System entropy. The principle of entropy maximization. 11.3. Measurement scales. The concept of a measurement operation. Formal definition of a measurement scale. The concept of a nominal scale. The concept of an ordinal scale. Features of the interval scale. The ratio scale as a type of interval scale. The difference scale as a type of interval scale. Definition of an absolute scale. Intermediate scales. Hierarchy of measurement scales. Isomorphic scales.
11.4. Elements of statistical decision theory. Elements of statistical decision theory. General scheme of statistical decision-making. Requirements for the criteria and procedures for evaluating and selecting optimal systems. Efficiency criteria for systems in uncertain operations. Testing of statistical hypotheses.
11.5. Decision-making under conditions of conflict. The conflict factor. Causes of conflict. Game-theoretic methods for justifying decisions. Strategic and statistical games. Solutions to strategic games. Two-player zero-sum games. The minimax principle. Solving paired matrix games. Reducing a game solution to a linear programming problem. Features of solving statistical games. Criteria for decision-making
in statistical games. Planning an experiment for solving statistical games with the aim of reducing uncertainty.
1. What role do uncertainties play in systems analysis?
2. Characterize the causes, sources, external and internal factors, and types of uncertainty.
3. What is the role of information in reducing uncertainty?
4. What is system entropy, and what is the principle of its maximization?
5. Characterize the methods of nonparametric statistics.
6. What is a measurement operation?
7. Characterize the main types of measurement scales. Give examples of scales.
8. Give the general scheme of statistical decision-making.
9. What efficiency criteria for systems are used to evaluate systems in uncertain operations?
10. How is a statistical hypothesis tested?
11. How does the conflict factor affect decision-making?
12. What are the causes of conflict?
13. Characterize the game-theoretic methods for justifying decisions.
14. How is an experiment planned for solving statistical games?
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