Unemployment. The causes and types of unemployment. The consequences of unemployment

Main categories of population

An important phenomenon characterizing macroeconomic instability and having a cyclical nature of development is unemployment. To determine who are unemployed, you should consider the main categories of the population.

From a macroeconomic point of view, the population (POP) of a country is divided into two groups: labor force (L) and non-labor force (NL): POP = L + NL.

The category “non-labor force” includes people who are not engaged in social production and are not seeking employment. The following populations are automatically included in this category: children under 16; persons serving prison sentences; people in psychiatric hospitals and people with disabilities. (These categories of people are called “institutional population” because they are supported by state institutions.) In addition, the category of non-included labor force includes people who could, in principle, work, but do not do this for various reasons, . who do not want or cannot work and are not looking for work: full-time students (because they have to study); retired (since they have already worked out); housewives (because although they work full time, but not in social production and do not get paid for their work); tramps (because they simply do not want to work); people who stopped looking for work (looking for work, but desperate to find it and therefore retired from the workforce).

The category “labor force” includes people who can work, want to work and are actively looking for work. Those. these are people, either already engaged in social production, or having no job, but making special efforts to find it. Thus, the total workforce is divided into two parts:

• employed (employed - E) - i.e. having a job, and it doesn't matter if a person is full-time or part-time, full-time or part-time. A person is also considered busy if he does not work for the following reasons: a) is on vacation; b) is sick; c) strikes and d) due to bad weather;
• unemployed (unemployed - U) - i.e. not having a job, but actively seeking it. Job search is the main criterion that distinguishes the unemployed from people who are not included in the labor force.

Thus, the total workforce is equal to: L = E + U.

(At the same time, servicemen on active military service, although formally referred to as employed, as a rule, when calculating the unemployment rate indicator are not taken into account in the total labor force. This indicator is usually (unless specifically mentioned) calculated for the civil sector only .)

Indicators of the number of employed and unemployed, the number of labor force and the number of people not included in the labor force are indicators of flows. Between the categories of "employed", "unemployed" and "not included in the workforce" constantly moving (Fig. 7.1.). Some of the employed lose their jobs, turning into the unemployed. Some unemployed find work by becoming employed. Some of the employees leave their jobs and leave the public sector of the economy (for example, retiring or becoming a housewife), while some of the unemployed, in despair, stop looking for work, which increases the number of people not included in the workforce. At the same time, a part of people who are not engaged in social production, begins an active job search (non-working women, students who have graduated from higher educational institutions, and thought out tramps). As a rule, in a stable economy, the number of people losing their jobs is equal to the number of people actively seeking it.

The main indicator of unemployment is an indicator of unemployment. The unemployment rate (rate of unemployment - u) is the ratio of the number of unemployed to total labor force (the sum of the number of employed and unemployed), expressed as a percentage: u = U / L * 100% or u = U / (E + U) * 100%.

Unemployment rate in Russia,%

Source - CIA World Factbook

View data on unemployment in Russia in the form of a table

Unemployment rate in other countries of the world

Another important indicator of labor statistics is the labor force participation rate, which is the ratio of the labor force to the total adult population, expressed as a percentage:

labor force participation rate = labor force / adult population

Causes and types of unemployment

There are three main causes of unemployment:

1. job loss (dismissal);
2. voluntary departure from work;
3. first appearance on the labor market.

There are three types of unemployment: frictional, structural and cyclic.

Frictional unemployment (from the word "friction" - friction) is associated with the search for work. Obviously, a job search takes time and effort, so a person who is waiting or looking for work has been unemployed for some time. A feature of frictional unemployment is that already ready-made specialists with a certain level of professional training and qualification are looking for work. Therefore, the main reason for this type of unemployment is the imperfection of information (information about the availability of jobs). A person who has lost his job today usually cannot find another job tomorrow.

The frictional unemployed are:

1. dismissed from work by order of the administration;
2. retired at their own request;
3. waiting to recover from their previous job;
4. those who have found work, but have not yet started it;
5. seasonal workers (out of season);
6. people who first appeared on the labor market and have the required level of professional training and qualifications in the economy.

Frictional unemployment is not only an inevitable phenomenon, since it is associated with natural tendencies in the movement of labor (people will always change jobs, seeking to find a job most appropriate to their preferences and qualifications), but also desirable because it contributes to a more rational placement labor and higher productivity (favorite work is always more productive and creative than the one that a person forces himself to perform).

The level of frictional unemployment is equal to the percentage ratio of the number of frictional unemployed to the total labor force: u _fritz = U _fricc / L * 100%.

Structural unemployment is caused by structural changes in the economy that are associated with a) a change in the structure of demand for products of various industries and b) a change in the sectoral structure of the economy, the cause of which is scientific and technical progress. The demand structure is constantly changing. Demand for products of some industries increases, which leads to an increase in demand for labor, while the demand for products of other industries decreases, which leads to a reduction in employment, layoffs of workers and unemployment. Over time, the sectoral structure of production also changes: some industries become obsolete and disappear, such as the production of steam locomotives, carriages, kerosene lamps and black-and-white televisions, while others appear, such as the production of personal computers, video recorders, pagers and mobile phones. The set of professions required in the economy is changing. The professions of a chimney sweep, a glassblower, a lamplighter, a driver, a traveling salesman disappeared, but the professions of a programmer, image maker, disc jockey, and designer appeared.

The reason for structural unemployment is the disparity between the structure of the workforce and the structure of the workplace. This means that people with professions and qualifications who do not meet modern requirements and modern industry structure, being fired, cannot find a job. In addition, the structural unemployed are people who first appeared on the labor market, including graduates of higher and secondary special educational institutions whose profession is no longer required in the economy. Structural unemployed are also people who have lost their jobs due to changes in the structure of demand for products of different industries. At different periods of time, the demand for the products of some industries is growing, so production expands and additional workers are required, and the demand for products of other industries falls, production declines, and workers are laid off.

The level of structural unemployment is calculated as the ratio of the number of structurally unemployed to the total labor force, expressed as a percentage: u _struc = U _strukt / L * 100%.

Since both frictional and structural unemployment are related to job searches, these types of unemployment fall into the category of “search unemployment”.

Structural unemployment is more prolonged and costly than frictional unemployment, since it is almost impossible to find work in new industries without special retraining and retraining. However, like frictional, structural unemployment is an inevitable and natural phenomenon (that is, associated with natural processes in the development and movement of labor) even in highly developed economies, since the structure of demand for products of various sectors is constantly changing and the branch structure of the economy is constantly changing in connection with scientific and technological progress, and therefore structural changes constantly occur in the economy and will always occur, causing structural unemployment. Therefore, if in the economy there is only frictional and structural unemployment, then this corresponds to the state of full employment of the labor force, and the actual output in this case is equal to potential.

The consequences of unemployment

The presence of cyclical unemployment is a serious macroeconomic problem, is a manifestation of macroeconomic instability, evidence of underemployment of resources.

There are economic and non-economic effects of unemployment, which are manifested both at the individual level and at the social level.

The non-economic consequences of unemployment are the psychological and social and political consequences of losing a job. At the individual level, the non-economic consequences of unemployment are that if a person cannot find a job for a long time, this often leads to psychological stress, despair, nervous (up to suicide) and cardiovascular diseases, family breakdown. The loss of a stable source of income can push a person to a crime (theft and even murder), asocial behavior.

At the level of society, this, in the first place, means an increase in social tensions, including political upheavals. It was not by chance that the American President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, explaining the reason for the development and implementation of the New Deal policy to get out of the Great Depression, the main problem of which was huge unemployment (in the United States, every fourth was unemployed during that period), he said "To prevent the revolution of despair." Indeed, military coups and revolutions are associated precisely with a high level of social and economic instability. In addition, the social consequences of unemployment are an increase in the level of morbidity and mortality in the country, as well as an increase in the crime rate. The costs of unemployment should also include the losses incurred by society in connection with the costs of education, vocational training and providing a certain level of skills to people who as a result are unable to use them and, therefore, pay back.

The economic consequences of unemployment at the individual level are the loss of income or part of the income (that is, the decrease in current income), as well as the loss of qualifications (which is especially bad for people of the newest professions) and therefore a decrease in the chances of finding high-paying, prestigious work in the future a possible reduction in future income).

The economic consequences of unemployment at the level of society as a whole consist in the underproduction of gross national product, the backlog of actual GDP from potential GDP. The presence of cyclical unemployment (when the actual level of unemployment exceeds its natural level) means that resources are not fully utilized. Therefore, actual GDP is less than potential (GDP with full employment of resources). The lag (gap) of actual GDP from potential GDP (GDP gap) is calculated as the percentage ratio of the difference between actual and potential GDP to the value of potential GDP:

GDP _gap = (Y - Y *) / Y * * 100%,

The relationship between the lag in output (at the time of GNP) and the level of cyclical unemployment empirically, based on a study of US statistics over a number of decades, was derived by the economic adviser to President J. Kennedy, the American economist Arthur Ouken (A.Okun). In the early 1960s, he proposed a formula that showed the relationship between the lag in actual output from potential and the level of cyclical unemployment. This relationship is called the "law of Auken."

The left side of the equation contains the GDP gap formula. In the right part, u is the actual unemployment rate, u * is the natural unemployment rate, therefore (u - u *) is the cyclical unemployment rate, ?? is the Oken coefficient (??> 0). This coefficient shows by how many percent the actual output is reduced compared to the potential (i.e., by how many percent the lag increases) if the actual unemployment rate increases by 1 percentage point, i.e. This is the coefficient of sensitivity of GDP lagging to changes in cyclical unemployment. For the US economy in those years, according to Okun, it was 2.5%. For other countries and other times it may be numerically different. The minus sign in front of the expression on the right side of the equation means that the relationship between actual GDP and cyclical unemployment is inverse (the higher the unemployment rate, the smaller the actual GDP compared to potential).

The lag of the actual GDP of any year can be calculated not only in relation to the potential output, but also in relation to the actual GDP of the previous year. The formula for such a calculation was also proposed by A.Ouken:

where Yt is the actual GDP of a given year, Yt - 1 is the actual GDP of the previous year, i.e. The left side of the equation contains the formula for lagging GDP by year, ut is the actual unemployment rate of a given year, ut - 1 is the actual unemployment rate of the previous year, 3% is the growth rate of potential GNP due to:

a) population growth, b) capital investment growth, and c) scientific and technical progress; 2 is a coefficient that shows how many percent actual GDP decreases while the unemployment rate increases by 1 percentage point (this means that if the unemployment rate increases by 1 percentage point, actual GDP will decrease by 2%). This coefficient was calculated by Ouken on the basis of the analysis of empirical (statistical) data for the American economy, so for other countries it may be different.

State policy to combat unemployment

Since unemployment is a serious macroeconomic problem, it is an indicator of macroeconomic instability, the state is taking measures to combat it. For different types of unemployment, since they are due to different reasons, different measures are used. Common to all types of unemployment are such measures as:

• unemployment benefits;
• the creation of employment services (employment offices).

Specific measures to combat frictional unemployment are:

• improvement of the system of collecting and providing information on the availability of jobs (not only in this city, but also in other cities and regions);
• creation of special services for these purposes.

To combat structural unemployment, measures such as are used:

• the creation of public services and institutions for retraining and retraining;
• assistance to private services of this type.

The main means of dealing with cyclical unemployment are:

• pursuing a counter-cyclical (stabilization) policy aimed at preventing deep recessions of production and, consequently, mass unemployment;
• creation of additional jobs in the public sector.