Lecture
Researchers have long noted that war ranks among the most rapidly developing historical phenomena. War attained developed forms considerably earlier than peaceful relations did. It has been, is and will remain a powerful locomotive of historical progress, despite the blood, death and horror it brings with it.
Within the twentieth century war underwent the most profound changes in its socio-political and military-technical content, in the character of the weapons employed, in scale, destructiveness and lethality, and in its impact on the life of society.
The political features of the wars and armed conflicts of the twenty-first century are bound up with the transition from classic interstate wars to asymmetric and hybrid conflicts, in which the key roles are played by information technology, terrorism, nationalism and the struggle for resources. Modern wars are increasingly waged not for the sake of territorial conquest but for political influence and control over the economy and strategic lines of communication.
Asymmetric wars A confrontation between a state and non-state actors (terrorist organizations, insurgents). Such wars do not presuppose parity of forces but are built on exploiting the adversary's weaknesses.
Hybrid conflicts A combination of military operations with cyberattacks, economic pressure, propaganda and diplomatic manoeuvring. States employ a comprehensive approach to achieve political aims.
Information warfare The mass media, social networks and digital technologies have become instruments of political influence. Control over information makes it possible to shape public opinion and to legitimize the actions of the authorities.
Nationalism and ethnic conflicts The growth of aggressive nationalism and ethnic antagonisms provokes internal wars and interstate clashes.
The struggle for resources Shortages of raw materials, energy and water are becoming a cause of armed clashes, especially in regions with unstable economies.
| Characteristic | Twentieth century | Twenty-first century |
|---|---|---|
| Type of conflict | Interstate wars | Asymmetric and hybrid |
| Aims | Territorial conquest | Political influence, resources |
| Instruments | Armies, tanks, aviation | Cyberattacks, mass media, intelligence services |
| Actors | States | States + non-state groups |
| Scale | Global wars (WWI, WWII) | Local and regional conflicts |
Growing instability: a third of the world's states are involved in wars or armed conflicts.
A diminishing role for international organizations: the UN and other structures often prove unable to prevent new conflicts.
Increasing militarization: states continue to invest billions in new types of armaments, including weapons of mass destruction.
The transformation of diplomacy: negotiations are increasingly accompanied by threats of the use of force or of economic sanctions.
The modern wars and armed conflicts of the twenty-first century are not only a clash of armies but also a struggle for the information space, for resources and for political influence. They reflect the crisis of the world security system and demand new approaches to conflict settlement.
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