Lecture
If we turn to the technological scheme of modeling (see Fig. 1.14), we will see that the section “Informal Synthesis” precedes the direct construction of the model.
This stage is the most critical part of the technology (correcting errors in designing models built on an initially erroneous basis is the most expensive) and at the same time quite complex, although it may seem the opposite to the first and unsophisticated glance. The fact is that by the time when a person starts designing, the number of options possible for development and further implementation is quite large (it can be done this way and that way, and dozens of other ways), and it is quite difficult to choose one of them . Therefore, they often take the first available option, without particularly arguing why he was chosen. Most often, in such a situation, there are programmers who are closest to the system’s immediate implementation in the technological chain of system developers and, accordingly, farthest from the formulation of the true problem, the systems engineering study of the object.
The complexity of this stage lies in the informal nature of the methods he uses. The specificity of the stage is the transition from an informal presentation of an infinitely complex object, a problem that has no boundaries, from fuzzy representations to a formalized formulation, a clear description of the system. The transition from the infinitely complex to the framework presented inside is a process of transition from one quality to another, and with the modern level of science development it cannot be clearly regulated. This transition can be accomplished only through intellectual efforts and a great deal of methodological experience inherent in the man-producer, as well as the carefully organized work of a group of experts who are well aware of the range of problems discussed, but who do not have special formalization techniques.
The procedure of informal synthesis is based on the work of the director (analyst) with experts and has as its goal a formal description of the object, problem, task, idea, which is further developed by formal methods within the formal part of the systems modeling technology.
It should be noted that it is difficult to rely on poorly predictable experience and knowledge of the analyst. Perhaps a good idea for the analyst will come in a couple of days, and perhaps in a year! The second difficulty in his work is that it is difficult to determine which facts are important for their inclusion in the model, and which will prove to be insignificant. It is possible that the analyst will not be able to take into account some factor, and subsequently, because of this, the entire concept as a whole will have to be rebuilt.
In order to reduce this uncertainty, technologies were created (and continue to be created) that accompany the stages of informal synthesis. The technology itself, by definition, means obtaining, when using it, a product of guaranteed quality in a predetermined time frame and at a cost known in advance.
Informal synthesis is the pre-project stage of research of an object. The main sections of this stage are:
Immediately, we note: no analytical tool will allow the analyst to determine what the expert means, if the latter does not tell about it himself . Only under this condition is the analyst able to extract the necessary information from the expert. Although, in fairness, we note that there are technologies of power extraction of information, intelligence, suppression, disinformation, studied in separate special courses.
The task of the analyst is to correctly construct an interview so that the expert will give the director the most useful and necessary information for the project.
Even before the interview begins, the analyst should clearly and clearly be aware of his topic and framework; The analyst must focus on a specific problem, tune in to it. For this you need to make an interview plan. Before the interview, the analyst should have a survey plan similar to the table of contents of the book (paragraphs, sub-paragraphs, etc.). The hierarchical construction of the plan is welcomed - this indicates its deep elaboration. It is necessary to imagine in advance how long the interview will last.
The logical unit of the interview is the topic and the degree of its detail. When conducting an interview, you must follow the following recommendations (which are called “Gallup funnel”):
It should be aware that the information obtained during the interview, there are three types:
Some information about the interview.
Questions can be “closed” and “open”. Closed questions suggest that the analyst gives the expert a choice of answers. Usually the interview begins with closed questions. In the future, when the expert enters the mode of reasoning, it is better to switch to open-ended questions, although they can significantly lead away from the topic of the interview.
Questions can be shared and private. Common questions usually do not distort the opinion of the expert. During the interview, you should move from general to more specific questions.
The question must be balanced, that is, it must not contain any assessments in advance (the respondent may agree, disagree, refrain). It will be a mistake to build the question in such a way that, with any expert answer, the result is nonetheless the same. In this case, the analyst programs the expert, which is dangerous for the result of the study.
Questions should not contain implicit statements that exert pressure on the expert, and should be neutral.
An example of pressure on an expert: the question “Have you lost your horns?” Contains an implicit statement . Since the answer "Yes" means that you had horns. If the answer is "No" means that they are still with you. That is, no matter how the expert responds, his answer is programmed in advance.
Not a neutral statement . Depending on the wording of the question - “How do you feel about the capture of the country by the blacks?” Or “What is your attitude to the fact that the Negro settles in your neighborhood?” - a different answer will be received in the mass.
We will give some more tips that may be useful in the preparation and conduct of the interview.
1) Interviews should be conducted in the absence of third parties.
2) There should be no time limit on the end of the interview (for example, do not start the interview at five o'clock on Friday evening in the summer).
3) Notify immediately how much time you will take from the interviewee.
4) The analyst should have everything he needs with him (paper, pen, etc.).
5) The interviewer's clothes should be in the style of the organization in which he is going to conduct the interview.
6) It is imperative that the respondent has your business card, which will relieve him of embarrassment and the need to remember your name.
7) From the very beginning, the expert should be guaranteed confidentiality. The results of the study, although they will be transmitted to the management, will have a generalized appearance, without personalization.
8) At the beginning of the interview, you must immediately thank the expert for something, set it up favorably.
9) It is necessary to show the expert his importance and the importance of the information you want to get from him.
10) Convince the expert that the interview is not an exam, and the results of the study will not go personally to the detriment of the expert.
11) Do not and should not be afraid of an expert!
12) It is recommended to clarify the thoughts of an expert, to use the terms of his usual language. Do not use your own specific terms. That you have to get into the subject area of the expert, and not he into yours. It is recommended to help the expert to link thoughts in logical sequences (for example, “as you said earlier ...”, “did I understand correctly that ...”, “if ..., then ..., wouldn’t it?”).
13) Determine the expert's competence area, pay attention to which expressions the expert prefers to use (“I heard,” “I know,” “I did”). Match the consistency of his statements, their validity.
14) Distinguish between subjective, distorted information, programmed from the true.
15) Interviews must include pauses, general approval. It is useful to sum up the intermediate results (“so, as you said ...”).
16) Questions should be put simply and directly, observing the coherence of thought: “As you said earlier ...”
17) Let the expert understand the interview settings. Distinguish between the organization’s settings and the expert’s personal motives.
18) The non-verbal signs coming from the expert should be taken into account.
19) It is necessary to influence the movement of the interview with non-verbal methods (posture, palms, eyes, movements, zones).
20) Determine the type of expert ("shy", "aggressive", "self-confident", "taciturn", "intellectual") and compensate for its shortcomings (see below).
21) The dynamics of the survey: warming up, "honeymoon", self-affirmation, adaptation, cooperation, epilogue, relaxation (see below).
For the analyst, an important part of the interview is a good command of non-verbal communication.
The interviewer is recommended not only to listen to the expert, but also to observe him, his gestures, facial expressions. About 55% of the information is transmitted by non-verbal means using facial expressions, gestures, nods, tone and voice, humor, etc. You can thoroughly familiarize yourself with the method of non-verbal communication in Allan Pisa’s Body Language, but some of the information in this book we give further.
Gestures are made by ordinary people unconsciously (excluding professional actors, politicians, teachers) and can tell a lot to the observer about the true state of things. But it should be borne in mind:
It is necessary to learn how to read the body “language”: keep track of the position of the arms (crossed, behind the back, “boat” ...), palms (open, in pockets, clenched into fists, in the “lock e ”, in the “spire”). They say a lot: eye position, head tilt, foot position (angle), body reversal, etc.
For example, when a person is sincere, the palms are open, with the opposite, the palms are hidden. When a person is critical of you, your palms may be in your pockets, your arms are crossed or just behind your back. We can say that the gestures are ordered according to the strength of the psychological impact.
See here for short excerpts from Allan Pisa's Body Language.
Attention should be paid to the mutual position and distance between people. There is a spatial zone of property around a person. Up to 15 cm. There is an ultra-intimate zone, the area of physical contact; in the range from 15 to 50 cm. there is an intimate zone in which only spouses and children are allowed, and the intrusion into which an outsider causes an involuntary body response, physiological reactions (adrenaline rush into the blood), leading to an increase in alertness. In a personal zone (from 50 to 120 cm), people are allowed under certain conditions, for example, at a party, during a conversation. In the social zone (from 1.2 to 3.6 m.) It is permissible to be positioned as a locksmith, postman ... The public zone is located at a distance of 3.6 meters and more.
Examples: the effect of the crowd (aggression increases with the reduction of the property zone and falls when the crowd dismembers), the penetration of the zone (index finger, cropping the trajectory of the car).
If the violation of the zone size is unavoidable (for example, in a bus, elevator), the zone is restored by other means (avoidance of a direct look in the eye, impartiality of the look).
The neutral distance between people is about 90 cm, less - a person is trying to prove something, more - a person wants to leave.
Using this information, you can get additional information during the interview. Non-verbal communication involves not only fixing additional information, but also managing the situation, the impact on the person. Such methods can suppress a person, pacify the aggressor, win him over, talk.
Position change tools (“status quo”) (examples).
In verbal communication, examples of techniques for managing:
Recently, the so-called neuro-linguistic programming (abbreviated NLP), a technology that allows you to manipulate a person using the means of his subconscious, has been developed.
Should be aware of the problems of the interview. Being aware of these problems, you will help yourself in solving them. Informal phrases can be ambiguous, the complexity of the phrase veils its meaning, lack of clarification, different levels of obviousness of terms, logic, facts, different interpretation of answers, telegraphic communication style, directive communication style, non-adaptation of terms, nuances of motives, nuances, nuances, non-observance of time frames ...
Below are some recommendations for interviewing, depending on the type of expert.
Type of Expert:
Stages of the interview (survey dynamics):
Stages of the generation of ideas:
The accelerator process is the technology of generating ideas. The technology is necessary to ensure a guaranteed result of the process of generating ideas. Today, the following technologies are used:
In practice, often use several technologies at the same time.
Technology requires a team of experts and the free exchange of ideas within it. Для того, чтобы задача была решена, для эффективной работы технологии от вас требуется сформировать у коллектива сильный побуждающий мотив («жизнь или смерть», серьезное поощрение, известность). Критика идей во время мозгового штурма запрещается (анализ этих идей осуществляется только по окончании штурма), поощряется развитие идеи, цепочка мыслей, приветствуется появление даже безумных на первый взгляд идей. Обязательно фиксируйте на носителе все выдвинутые идеи. Смысл мозгового штурма заключается в наведении новой идеи одного участника от идеи другого участника — в отличие от ограниченности мышления каждого из членов коллектива в отдельности. Тем самым существенно расширяется поле поиска идей для рассмотрения.
In fig. 35.1 показана схема штурма (для трех участников А, Б, В). Специальности у штурмующих разные (условно это показано тремя разными окружностями), поэтому пробы не так привязаны к вектору инерции ВИ, как обычно. К тому же правила штурма стимулируют «генерирование» смелых и даже фантастических идей: штурмующие выходят за пределы узкой специальности — а именно там, за этими пределами, и лежат решения высших уровней.
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| Fig. 35.1. Схема взаимодействия участников в методе мозгового штурма и процесс поиска решений |
На схеме отражен еще один важный механизм штурма — взаимодействие и развитие идей. Участник А высказал идею 1, ее тут же видоизменил В — возникла идея 2. Теперь А иначе видит свою идею, это позволяет продолжить ее развитие (стрелка 3). Образуется цепь идей 1-2-3-4, направленная к решению второго уровня. Правда, механизм подхватывания идей иногда столь же последовательно (цепь 5-6) ведет и в сторону от решения.
Технология АРИЗ — поэтапная методика постановки цепи проблем и вопросов, отвечая на которые, аналитик приходит к решению проблемы. В настоящее время методика дополнена фондом приемов решения проблем, наиболее часто встречающихся в практике, и фондом физических эффектов.
Фонд эвристических приемов (эвристик) содержит до 200 типовых приемов. Основная идея — устранение физических противоречий путем их обхода; нахождение аналогий в прошлом опыте человечества. Примеры: заранее подложить противодействие (введение противоядия до укуса, прививка); обратить недостаток в достоинство усилением силы недостатка (вредная обычно вибрация полезна для разрушения твердых пород); использование посредника; использование симметрии и т. д. См. также статью «Межотраслевой фонд эвристических приемов преобразования объекта» из электронного учебника «Модели и методы искусственного интеллекта».
Методики поиска решений: вепольный анализ, морфологический анализ, функционально-стоимостной анализ, метод маленьких человечков. См. также АРИЗ-71.
Справочник физических эффектов (эффект Ома, Черенкова, Джоуля-Ленца, «эффект хамелеона», и т. д.). См. также Фонд физико-технических эффектов (ФТЭ).
Полезным для данной технологии является определение уровня сложности задачи.
По статистике, задач 1 уровня — 32%. Это задачи, решение которых находится в пределах профессии. Обычно решение достигается за перебор от 1 до 10 вариантов. Требует небольшого изменения свойств объекта (например, смена материала на более дешевый дала замечательные изобретения — одноразовая бритва, одноразовая посуда, одноразовый подгузник).
Задач 2 уровня — 45%. Решение задач 2 уровня находится в пределах одной отрасли. Обычно решение достигается перебором от 10 до 100 вариантов. Требует выбора одного объекта из нескольких (например, выбор компоновки двигателя).
Tasks level 3 - 19%. The solution is within the same science. Usually the solution is achieved by going through 100 to 1000 options. Requires a partial change of the selected object (for example, using an explosion in a liquid to block the light beam between the plates).
Tasks level 4 - 4%. The solution is in related sciences. Usually the solution is achieved by searching from 1000 to 10 000 variants. Requires the creation of a new object (for example, the smell method of welding control).
Tasks level 5 - 0.3%. The solution is outside of modern science. Usually the solution is achieved by searching from 10 000 to 1 000 000 options. Requires the creation of a new set of objects (for example, rocket production, electric-spark metal working).
Solve yourself the following tasks of different levels.
Задание 1 уровня. Требуется изготовить стеклянный (инертный в химическом отношении) куб со стороной 1 метр со множеством вертикальных каналов (капилляров) для пропускания жидкости. Противоречие: хрупкость, размеры отверстия, толщина стенок, длина канала, множественность каналов.
Задание 2 уровня. Предложите, в чем хранить универсальный растворитель. Противоречие: растворитель растворяет все. Но хранить его в чем-то надо.
Задание 3 уровня. Требуется наладить производство окрашенных деревянных досок. Противоречие: краска проникает неглубоко в древесину и трескается, требует ручной работы, неравномерно ложится.
Теории решения изобретательских задач (ТРИЗ) и всему тому, что с этим связано, посвящен целый сайт в Интернете: www.trizminsk.org.
Применение определенного языка (графического, геометрического, таблиц, деревьев) для описания проблемы и автоматическое оперирование описанием для нахождения решений. К данному разделу относятся методики информационного моделирования (объектно-ориентированного, функционального). См. также лекцию «Внутреннее представление данных и проблема проектирования» из учебника «Модели и методы искусственного интеллекта».
При генерации идей следует осознавать помехи, оказывающие отрицательное влияние на продуктивность работы, для того, чтобы далее компенсировать их. Перечислим некоторые из них: привычки, лень, излишняя напряженность, боязнь показаться смешным или подвергнуться критике в глазах других людей, слабая целеустремленность, боязнь начала («синдром понедельника»), отсутствие ресурсов, излишняя серьезность.
При реализации вышеизложенных процедур следует иметь в виду, что есть определенные правила формирования коллектива. Коллектив должен быть неоднороден, в нем должен быть лидер, генератор идей, фиксатор идей, критик, исполнитель, библиотекарь. В коллективе должны быть сформулированы мотивы. При стимулировании коллектива следует иметь в виду закономерности, которые наблюдаются между результатом и силой стимула, для того, чтобы управлять ими (см.рис. 35.2).
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| Fig. 35.2. Зависимость результатов индивидуальной деятельности человека от степени ее мотивации (зависимость снята коллективом психологов под руководством Леонтьева) |
Рост стимулов, мотивированность деятельности ( зона А на рис. 35.2) ведет к росту результатов. Дальнейшее стимулирование ( зона Б ) не ведет к росту результатов в силу естественных ограничений возможностей человека. Дальнейшее наращивание мощности стимула ( зона В ) сковывает возможности человека; человек, которому поставлены слишком сильные стимулы, может наоборот вести себя скованно и в результате не сумеет достичь даже тех результатов, которые бы он мог достигнуть в нормальной обстановке. И, наконец, в условиях стресса ( зона Г ) происходит резкое возрастание результатов деятельности человека. Стресс вызывает мобилизацию всех человеческих сил (в том числе и подсознательных) для решения проблемы. Следует иметь в виду, что возвращение организма (восстановление) к нормальному функционированию после стресса — процесс достаточно медленный. Цепь быстро чередующихся стрессов может вызвать необратимые последствия в организме человека, так как возможен переход через критический порог истощения ресурсов, и даже смерть.
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System modeling
Terms: System modeling