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The Climate of the Near Future: Trends, Threats, and Scenarios

Lecture



Earth's climate is entering a new phase that scientists are calling alarming and potentially irreversible. Despite global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, in 2024 the planet's average temperature exceeded the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels for the first time — a key benchmark of the Paris Agreement.

Main Trends

1. Rising Global Temperature

  • 2024 was the hottest year in the entire history of observations.

  • The average temperature was 1.6°C higher than at the end of the 19th century.

  • Even a brief exceedance of the 1.5°C threshold may signal the onset of long-term warming.

2. Intensification of Extreme Events

  • An increase in the number of abnormal heat waves, droughts, floods, and tropical cyclones.

  • A rise in sea level and accelerated glacier melting.

3. The Influence of El Niño

  • The natural phenomenon of El Niño intensified warming in early 2024.

  • 2025 is expected to be slightly cooler, but the trend remains upward.

Possible Scenarios

Scenario Description
Sustained warming Temperature consistently exceeds 1.5°C → ecosystem degradation, climate migration
Climatic turbulence Sharp temperature fluctuations, alternating droughts and downpours, instability of weather systems
Regional cooling Slowdown of the Gulf Stream could lead to cooling in Europe amid overall warming
New glaciation (long-term) With a decline in CO₂ over hundreds of thousands of years, a return to an ice age is possible

Key Contributing Factors

  • Greenhouse gases: CO₂, CH₄, N₂O — the main driver of warming.

  • Aerosols: can temporarily cool the atmosphere but cause pollution.

  • Urban development and industry: intensify local microclimates and heat emissions.

  • Changes in the ozone layer: affect the penetration of ultraviolet radiation.

What Can Be Done?

  • Transition to renewable energy sources.

  • Development of green infrastructure and carbon regulation.

  • Support for adaptation strategies: sustainable agriculture, coastal protection, climate planning.

The climate of the near future is not merely a forecast, but a challenge for civilization. It requires scientific precision, political will, and global cooperation.

created: 2025-09-14
updated: 2026-03-08
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Lectures and tutorial on "Climatology and Meteorology"

Terms: Climatology and Meteorology