16.2. Economic crises of the second half of the 20th century

In the period after World War II, economic crises took place in 1948–1949, 1953–1954, 1957–1958, 1960–1961, 1969–1970, 1973–1975, 1979–1982, 1990–1991.

The crises of 1974-1975 and 1980-1982 were the deepest and widest in scope of countries.

The economic crisis of 1974-1975 The crisis of 1974 - 1975 in scale exceeded all previous post-war crises.

It began in the United States, England and the Federal Republic of Germany and almost simultaneously covered all developed capitalist countries, including Japan and the countries of Western Europe. Such a synchronism of the crisis in the post-war period was observed for the first time, which is explained by new phenomena in the development of the world economy. After World War II, there was a profound transformation of modern capitalism, caused by dynamic changes in the development of productive forces in connection with the third scientific and technological revolution (see Chapter 19), the growth of the internationalization of production, the deepening of the international division of labor and specialization. On the basis of these processes, the technical and economic level of the leading capitalist countries and the large interdependence between national economies were achieved. These factors led to a significant decline in production during the crisis, even in countries that have experienced the so-called "economic miracle" - rapid economic growth (Germany, Japan, Italy). In these countries, the crisis of 1974-1975. was the first major post-war crisis.

In the leading country of the world - the United States, the crisis began to develop in almost all industries. Particularly sharply, it influenced investment activity and housing construction (a decline of more than 50%) and industrial construction (the decline was even deeper). The crisis has also seized modern industries - mechanical engineering, chemical, electrical engineering. In them, the drop reached 20-30%. In the US, the crisis has not affected only one industry - coal. The number of unemployed in this country in 1975 amounted to 8.5 million people. At the same time, the number of people forced to work on a reduced work week has decreased. Real wages have decreased, inflation has caused an increase in the cost of living. The number of bankrupt firms grew. Losses from the crisis were determined at $ 400 billion.

The combination of the decline in production with rising prices was caused by the influence of inflationary processes. Inflation was due to various factors and above all the development of military production. War always leads to inflation, since manufactured products do not enter the market. In the period after World War II, the military-industrial complex was intensively developed in all countries. In connection with the STR of the 50-80-ies. the army, for example, the United States completely re-armed three or four times. Military spending increased from year to year: in the 1950s. they amounted to $ 50 billion, and at the end of the 70s. - 150 billion dollars.

Inflationary growth was caused by the fact that the policy of supporting economic growth in the United States was changed from short-term to long-term. This meant speeding up budget allocations, increasing the budget deficit and public debt. To repay it, the state issued government bonds, which increased the means of circulation and led to inflation. Monetary policy operated similarly - the transition to a cheap loan required an increase in the volume of circulation of funds and also led to inflation. Monopolies also generated inflation, because they inflated prices.

The cyclical crisis of 1974-1975. intertwined with energy and raw materials.

High growth rates of the capitalist economy in the 1950s and 1960s. caused an increase in world consumption of primary energy, which increased during 1950-1972. three times. The structure of the energy balance has changed - the share of oil has sharply increased, its consumption has increased five times over these years. The increase in oil consumption has led to an increase in the dependence of developed capitalist countries on the import of energy resources, a drop in their share in the production of heat and energy sources, and a deterioration in their position as importers. Even the United States, where the end of the XIX century. trade balance was active in the 70s of the XX century. had a trade deficit.

At the same time, important changes in the balance of power between the leading capitalist and developing countries took place in the world. Freed from colonial rule, countries began to seek an increase in their share of oil revenues and raised the issue of price increases.

Under the conditions of a sharp rise in prices, the capitalist countries were forced to revise their energy policy. They restricted oil imports through energy-saving measures, increased the production of their own energy resources (for example, England began to extract oil from the North Sea bottom), made oil replacement with coal, nuclear fuel, intensified research, development and use of energy-saving equipment and technologies, search for new energy sources .

The most striking manifestation of the commodity crisis was the rapid growth of prices for raw materials, since many types of raw materials were not enough. For 1970-1974 commodity prices increased by 87%. Developed countries used former colonies as raw material suppliers. The growth of productive forces increased the dependence of the capitalist countries on the import of mineral raw materials. In the 70s, young nation-states exporting raw materials took steps to increase incomes. But here they could not speak in a united front, as in the case of oil. Extraction of raw materials - capital-intensive production, and developed countries have moved to a policy of creating substitutes.

The food crisis was caused by a lack of food, especially grain. Affected crop failures in 1972 and 1974. Grain stocks declined by 2 times, and prices in the mid-70s. increased by 70-90%.

Structural crises

Structural crises. The companions of cyclical crises have become structural crises of the capitalist economy, generated by disproportions between the development of individual spheres and branches of production. As a rule, they are more durable and do not fit into one reproduction cycle.

Structural crisis affects the industry, the demand for products which grows slower than the economy as a whole, and sometimes even completely reduced. In this case, the relative over-accumulation of fixed capital and its depreciation are revealed. Therefore, the structural crisis causes an outflow of capital from this industry, and also forces entrepreneurs to look for ways to reduce production costs, go for technical innovations (innovations) and renew capital on a higher technical base. Such crises covered, for example, the steel industry, which faced the competition of new structural materials and reduced demand for their products as a result of the transition to resource-saving, low-waste and non-waste technologies. The energy and commodity crises discussed above are also examples of structural crises.

Structural crises are not cyclical in nature; they provide temporary overcoming of contradictions that accumulate over a long period. However, intertwining with a cyclical crisis, as it was in 1974-1975, they dramatically increase the scope and duration of crisis shocks.

World economic crisis of 1980-1982 The longest post-war period was the world economic crisis of 1980-1982, which lasted three years. The crisis has engulfed the entire capitalist world, all countries: industrialized, small and large, as well as many developing countries, most of them - Argentina and Brazil. With the overall protracted nature of the crisis in the United States and Canada took place in two waves. The industrial production index in the developed capitalist countries in 1982 was 95.5% compared to 1979, in developing countries - 87.5%. The decline in production in the United States in 1982 amounted to 8.2%, in the countries - members of the EEC - 1.2%. In the global economic crisis of 1980-1982. There are two stages. First, he embraced the UK and France, and then the United States and other developed countries. At the first stage, the crisis unfolded in industries producing consumer goods, at the second it embraced heavy industry (including ferrous metallurgy). The symptoms of an energy crisis persisted.

The synchronization of cyclical fluctuations in the main capitalist countries was also manifested in this crisis. It was noted above that the objective basis of this process is the internationalization of the economic life of capitalist countries, the increased dependence of all countries on foreign trade, the activities of transnational corporations.

Synchronization of the economic development of capitalist countries contributed to the liberalization of the movement of goods and capital; almost complete elimination of customs duties and other restrictions in trade between the countries of Western Europe; a significant reduction in duties in trade between the three world centers of capitalism (Western Europe - USA - Japan); the abolition of quantitative restrictions on imports of most goods. These processes have reduced the ability of national states to suspend the flow of goods from other countries and prevent their overproduction in their own country. After this crisis, states began to impose import restrictions.

Anti-crisis government regulation

Anti-crisis government regulation. The main direction of state intervention in the economy after the war becomes anti-cyclical (anti-crisis) regulation. All countries used it to overcome crises and to prevent them from occurring. It is carried out mainly through the budget and monetary policy of the state. So, in the 50's and 60's. To counteract the stagnation, the governments of capitalist countries increased government spending and reduced taxes, took care of accelerating the depreciation process, increasing the rate of depreciation. Such measures contributed to the growth of aggregate demand, which led to an increase in investment and, in turn, to the expansion of production. This was mainly fiscal policy, only supplemented by monetary policy.

As a result, in the 50's and 60's. there was a tendency to the growth of state and semi-state ownership on the basis of the nationalization of the industries and infrastructure in crisis condition. Huge budget funds were directed to the military-industrial complex, R & D, and the social sphere.

Programming and indicative planning of the economy, supported by budget programs (Holland, Spain, Norway, France, Sweden), are becoming a new form of state regulation in some countries.

In the 60-70-ies. general economic situation is undergoing significant changes. As a result, held in the 50s. government policies stimulate aggregate demand are beginning to increase inflationary phenomena. The policy is changing: the growth of government consumption is somewhat reduced, the growth of the expenditure part of the state budget. At the same time, although not actively enough, a monetary policy is used, and interest rates are rising.

At the turn of the 70s-80s The situation changes again. These years are characterized by the emergence of a series of crises. As noted, the hallmark of cyclical crises of 1974-1975. and 1980-1982 there was their interweaving with structural crises (raw materials, energy, food, environmental). In addition, for these crises was characterized by a combination of falling production, rising unemployment, chronic underloading of production capacity with a chronic increase in prices. This phenomenon is called stagflation. Outdated and applied model of state regulation.

As a result, the system of state-monopoly capitalism faced the problem of changing the methods of regulation in accordance with the new cyclical conjuncture. There is a rejection of the Keynesian model in favor of the liberal one, which provides for restricting the role of the state, and, consequently, greater freedom of market entities.

In accordance with the monetarist concept that replaced neo-Keynesianism, the government began to focus its attention on monetary regulation and the use of monetary policy to depreciate cyclical fluctuations and to ensure sustainable economic growth. The essential difference of the modern anti-crisis policy is its orientation towards the proposal, i.e. creating conditions for efficient production, through the liberalization of credit, tax cuts. The previous policy pursued the task of expanding demand, relying on fiscal leverage.

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Thus, the countries of the market economy during the XX century. have accumulated a large arsenal of tools and methods for dealing with crisis phenomena and effectively apply them, as evidenced by various economic policy options for overcoming crisis situations. This does not mean at all that cyclical fluctuations of the conjuncture are a thing of the past, and with it the phenomenon of state-monopoly capitalism itself. On the contrary, the ongoing process of concentration of production on the basis of the internationalization of economic life and the active integration of countries reinforce the role of state-monopoly capitalism as the coordinator of these phenomena. The very internationalization of production, the development of ties between countries, in turn, led to the synchronization of economic cycles, i.e. their coincidence in time in different countries and regions. At the present time, state anti-cyclical policy requires coordination at the interstate level of anti-crisis measures, which also, in our opinion, increases the role of the phenomenon of state-monopoly capitalism.

Questions for self-test

1. 1. What are the main causes of economic crises?

2. 2. Describe the economic crisis of 1929-1933. and show what options for exit from it carried out leading countries.

3. 3. What is the difference between the major economic crises of the second half of the 20th century? from the crises of the beginning of the century?

4. 4. What factors contributed to the synchronization of cyclical fluctuations after the Second World War? What is stagflation?