Topic 5. Mistakes of thinking

The main forms of human thinking: logical, creative thinking, decision making, solving complex problems. The concepts of "strategies" (J. Bruner) and "heuristics" (D. Kahneman) problem solving.

The main causes of errors in logical thinking. Unformed logical structures. Casual abduction. Motivational distortion of logical inference.

Errors of probabilistic thinking. Effects of using cognitive heuristics. Access heuristics. Heuristics representativeness. Influence of probabilistic context in the choice of alternatives (framing effect). The experiments of D. Kahneman and A. Tversky.

Errors of correlation thinking. Establishing correlations in scientific and everyday experience. Scientific and naive criteria for establishing causal relationships. Errors of "naive diagnostics". Superstition and belief in the paranormal. True and false correlations. Mistakes of false attribution. The phenomenon of "self-fulfilling prophecies."

Practical consequences: thinking errors in the professional activity of a psychologist.

Literature

Primary:

1. Myers D. Intuition. Opportunities and dangers. - SPb .: Peter, 2010. P. 114-141.
2. Kahneman D. Models of bounded rationality: the contribution of psychology to behavioral economics // Cognitive psychology. History and modernity. Reader / M.V. Falikman, V.F. Spiridonov (ed.). M .: Lomonosov, 2011. p. 368-383.
3. Shabri K., Simons D. The Invisible Gorilla, or the story of how deceptive our intuition is. M .: Career Press. Pp. 189-232.

Additional:

1. Kahneman D., Tversky A. Rational choice, values ​​and frames // Psychological journal. 2003. No. 4. P. 31-42.
2. Smith J. Pseudoscience and Paranormal Phenomena: A Critical Look. M .: Alpina non-fiction, 2011. - 566 p.

Cognitive distortion is the concept of cognitive science, meaning systematic errors in thinking or pattern deviations that arise from the basis of functional beliefs embedded in cognitive schemes, and are easily detected when analyzing automatic thoughts ^[1] . People tend to create their own “subjective social reality” dependent on their perception ^[2] and this subjective reality of theirs can determine their behavior in society ^[3] . Thus, cognitive distortions can lead to inaccurate judgments, illogical interpretations, or irrationality in behavior in the broad sense of the word ^{[4] [5] [6]} .

Some cognitive distortions may contribute to more effective actions of the individual in specific conditions ^[7] . In addition, some cognitive distortions allow making decisions faster in situations where the speed of decision making is more important than its accuracy ^[8] . Other cognitive distortions are a direct consequence of the limited capacity of a person to process information ^[9] or the lack of appropriate mental mechanisms (limited rationality) ^[10] .

Studies of cognitive distortions are of great importance for cognitive science, social psychology and behavioral economics, since they allow to “isolate” the psychological processes underlying the processes of perception and decision making (Tversky and Kahneman, 1999, p.582). Kahneman and Tversky (1996) also argue that the study of cognitive distortion is of great practical importance, particularly in the medical field ^[11] .

Cognitive distortions can occur due to various reasons, in particular:

• "Failures" in information processing (heuristics) ^[12]
• "Mental noise"
• limited capacity of the brain to process information ^[13]
• emotional and moral reasons ^[14]
• social influence ^[15] .

Study history

The concept of cognitive distortion was introduced by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1972 ^[16] on the basis of their research on the numerical literacy of people. Tversky, Kahneman and their colleagues demonstrated several reproducible patterns of behavior in which people’s decision making was different from rational choice theory. Tversky and Kahneman explained these discrepancies in judgments and decision making in terms of heuristics. Heuristics are simple in computing procedures, but sometimes lead to "serious and systematic errors" (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974, p. 1125) ^[17] . For example, the representativeness of heuristic solutions is defined as the propensity to estimate the frequency or probability of an event if it resembles a typical case (Baumeister & Bushman, 2010, p. 141). But the experiments carried out revealed the so-called “Linda problem”, which illustrates the non-representativeness of heuristic methods (Tversky and Kahneman, 1983 ^[18] ). "The problem of Linda" is as follows. The experiment participants were given a description of a woman named Linda, who mentioned that Linda can be a feminist because she is interested in issues of discrimination and social justice (see Tversky and Kaneman, 1983). After that, the participants were asked who did they consider Linda to be - a) a bank teller or b) a bank teller and an activist of the feminist movement? Respondents often answered b). Tversky and Kaneman (1983) called the choice made by the participants in the experiment “imposed delusion”. Heselton and other researchers also mention the influence of stereotypes in decision making.

On the other hand, critics of the works of Kahneman and Tversky, in particular, German psychologist Gerd Gigerentser, argue that one should not consider human thinking to be imbued with irrational cognitive distortions; rather, rationality of thinking should be considered as an adaptive tool that does not always follow the rules of formal logic or probability theory ^[19] . However, experiments similar to those that revealed the “Linda problem” grew into research programs that went far beyond academic psychology into other disciplines, including medicine and political science.

Typology of cognitive distortion

There are various approaches to the classification of cognitive distortions. There are both cognitive distortions characteristic of social groups (such as, for example, the psychological phenomenon of group polarization (English) Russian), and manifestations on an individual level.

Some cognitive distortions influence decision making where the desirability of solution options is important (for example, the misperception of the return costs). Others, such as the illusory correlation (English) Russian, influence the decision about the nature of cause-effect relationships. A special class of cognitive distortions is associated with memory properties ^[20] , including such as apparent constancy (incorrect recollection of one's past positions and behavior as reminiscent of current positions and behavior).

Some cognitive distortions reflect the subject's motivation ^[21] , for example, the desire for positive self-esteem, leading to egocentric distortion ^[22] in order to avoid unpleasant cognitive dissonance. There is a group of cognitive distortions associated with the characteristics of the brain to perceive, recall and draw conclusions. These distortions in the English-language literature are denoted by the term “Hot cognition” (literally “hot knowledge”, as opposed to “cold knowledge”, “Cold Cognition”).

Since some cognitive distortions reflect human motivation, in particular, a person’s aspiration to form a positive attitude towards himself ^[22] , this explains the nature of many patterns and stereotypes of mass consciousness (for example, the illusion of asymmetric insight, distortion in one’s own benefit, distortion of self-exaggeration). There are distortions related to the behavior in groups: a distortion in favor of their group, a distortion in the assessment of the homogeneity of members of another group.

Some cognitive distortions are associated with features that respond to certain stimuli. It was experimentally shown that people prone to alcohol abuse or drug use react more strongly to stimuli associated with alcohol or drugs. The most common tests to measure these distortions are Stroop tests ^{[23] [24]} and the spotted test (English) Russian ..

The following is a list of the most commonly studied cognitive distortions (see also List of cognitive distortions).

In a 2012 article in the American Psychological Bulletin (English) Russian. it has been suggested that at least 8 seemingly unrelated cognitive distortions can be generated by the same mechanism of information generation ^[27] . The article showed that deviations in memory based on information processes that transform objective facts (observations) into subjective evaluations (decisions) can generate regressive conservatism, Bayesian conservatism (English) Russian, the illusion of correlation, illusory superiority, the effect worse than average ", the effect of subadditivity, high expectations, overconfidence and the effect is hard-easy.

Practical meaning

Many social institutions of the modern world are guided by the message that people make rational decisions. In particular, investment companies to a large extent assume that all investors act rationally. In practice, investors act based on all sorts of cognitive distortions (prejudices, heuristic stereotypes, emotional effects, etc.) ^[28] .

The functioning of jury trials assumes that the jury will consider the matter impartially and confront the errors and emotional impulses. Conducted psychological experiments show that this is not the case ^{[29] [30]} .

Cognitive distortions are manifested in the preservation of superstitions in the public consciousness, and they prevent the spread of the scientific picture of the world that is different from the stereotypes of the mass consciousness ^[31] .

Correction of cognitive distortion

Gigerentser (1996) ^[32] , Heselton et al. (2005) argued that the content and direction of cognitive distortions can be controlled ^[9] . Elimination of cognitive distortion is a technique that aims to reduce distortion, encouraging people to use controlled procedures comparable to automated ones (Baumeister & Bushman, 2010, p. 155) ^[33] . In experiments to reduce the fundamental attribution error, when monetary incentives ^{[34] were used} and participants were warned that they would be responsible for their attributions ^[35] , an increase in the attribution accuracy was noted.

The concept of correction of cognitive distortion (English) Russian. includes procedures for modifying cognitive impairment in healthy people, and also relates to psychological (non-drug) therapies to reduce anxiety, depression, and various addictions, in English-language literature called Cognitive Bias Modification Therapy (CBMT), the term Applied Cognitive Processing Therapies (ACPT) is also found . CBMT is a dynamically developing psychotherapy, in which the modification of cognitive processes is used to reduce psychological stress ^{[36] [37]} , depression ^[38] , anxiety ^[39] and various dependencies ^[40] . The CBMT methods are psychotherapeutic methods that are applied using a computer with or without the participation of a psychotherapist. Correction of cognitive distortion relies on concepts such as the cognitive model of anxiety ^[41] , the cognitive model of attention ^[42], and other achievements of cognitive neuroscience ^[43] .

see also

• Cognitive Studies
• List of cognitive distortions
• Limited rationality
• The cognitive dissonance
• Critical thinking
• Logical trick
• Prejudice

In cognitive science, cognitive distortions are understood as systematic errors in thinking or patterned deviations, which arise on the basis of dysfunctional beliefs embedded in cognitive schemes, and are easily detected when analyzing automatic thoughts ^[1] . The existence of most cognitive distortions has been described by scientists, and many have been proven in psychological experiments ^[2] .

Cognitive distortions are an example of evolutionary mental behavior. Some of them perform an adaptive function, since they contribute to more efficient actions or faster solutions. Others seem to stem from the lack of appropriate thinking skills, or from the inappropriate use of skills that were adaptive in other conditions.

Distortions related to behavior and decision making

• The illusion of control is the tendency of people to believe that they can control or at least influence the results of events that they really cannot influence ^[3] .
• Irrational strengthening (English) Russian. - the tendency to make irrational decisions based on past rational decisions, or to justify actions already taken. It appears, for example, at auctions, when the price of things is overstated.
• Distortion in the perception of the choice made is a tendency to remember your choices as more correct than they were in reality.
• The craze effect, conformism is the tendency to do (or believe in) things, because many other people do it (or believe in it). Refers to group thinking, herd behavior and mania.
• Underestimating inaction is the tendency to evaluate malicious actions as worse and less moral than equally criminal inaction.
• Rejection of loss (English) Russian. - the negative utility associated with the loss of an object turns out to be greater than the utility associated with acquiring it. People are more upset by the loss of some thing, than they would have been glad of her find.
• Aversion to extreme decisions - the tendency to avoid extreme decisions, choosing intermediate ones.
• Deviation towards the result is a tendency to judge decisions by their final results, instead of assessing the quality of decisions according to the circumstances of the time when they were taken (“Winners are not judged”).
• Deviation towards the status quo is the tendency of people to want things to remain approximately the same.
• Denial of probability - the tendency to completely reject probabilistic problems when making decisions in conditions of uncertainty.
• Planning error - the tendency to underestimate the time to complete tasks. It is also known as a consequence of Murphy’s law: “Any work takes more time than you think.”
• The error associated with particular examples (the phenomenon of non-representative sampling) - ignoring the available statistical data in favor of particular cases.
• Reappraisal of impact - the tendency of people to overestimate the duration or intensity of the impact of a certain event on their future experiences.
• Revaluation of discounts (English) Russian. - the tendency of people to prefer more close in time payments relative to payments in the more distant future, the closer both payments are by now.
• Submission to authority is the tendency of people to obey authority, ignoring their own judgments about the appropriateness of action. See also Milgram's experiment.
• The need for completion is the need to achieve completion in an important question, to get an answer and to avoid feelings of doubt and uncertainty. Current circumstances (time or social pressure) can exacerbate this source of error.
• The need for controversy - faster dissemination of more sensational, catchy for sick topics or inspiring a spirit of contradiction messages in the open press.
• Confirmation bias (English) Russian. - The tendency to seek or interpret information in such a way as to confirm the concepts that were available in advance.
• Preference for zero risk (English) Russian. - preference to reduce any one small risk to zero instead of significantly reducing the other, greater risk. For example, most people would prefer to reduce the likelihood of terrorist acts to zero instead of reducing the accident rate on the roads, even if the second effect would give more saved lives. Another common example is jatrophobia: many people fear the complications of medical interventions more than illness or death from natural causes, regardless of statistical data.
• The preference of holistic objects is the need to complete this part of the task. Vividly manifested in the fact that people tend to eat more when offered large portions of food than to take many small portions.
• "The curse of knowledge" - the difficulties of informed people when trying to consider a problem from the point of view of people less informed.
• Профессиональная деформация — психологическая дезориентация личности в ходе профессиональной деятельности. Тенденция смотреть на вещи согласно правилам, общепринятым для своей профессии, отбрасывая более общую точку зрения. Наиболее ей подвержены лица, работающие с людьми (полиция/милиция, социальные работники, учителя, медики, психологи, сотрудники технической поддержки и т. п.) ^{[ источник не указан 1166 дней ]} .
• Рационализация после покупки — тенденция убеждать себя с помощью рациональных аргументов, что покупка стоила своих денег.
• Селективное восприятие — тенденция, состоящая в том, что ожидания влияют на восприятие.
• Систематическая ошибка различения — тенденция воспринимать два варианта как более различные, когда они реализуются одновременно, чем когда они реализуются по отдельности.
• The systematic consistency error (Congruence bias) is the tendency to test hypotheses solely by direct testing, neglecting indirectly or rejecting it.
• Blind spot in relation to cognitive distortion - a tendency not to compensate for their own cognitive distortion.
• Resistance, the "spirit of contradiction" - the need to do something opposite to what someone is urging you to do, because of the need to resist seeming attempts to limit your freedom of choice.
• The bias towards information retrieval is the tendency to seek information even when it does not affect actions.
• The effect of the Von Restorf (isolation effect) - the tendency of people to better remember detached outstanding objects.
• The effect of “less is better” is the preference of a less valuable thing in the absence of the possibility of comparison.
• Эффект вклада — тот факт, что люди часто хотят продать некий объект гораздо дороже, чем они готовы заплатить, чтобы приобрести его.
• Эффект знакомства с объектом — тенденция людей выражать необоснованную симпатию к некому объекту только потому, что они знакомы с ним.
• Эффект контраста — усиление или преуменьшение значения одного измерения, когда оно сравнивается с недавно наблюдавшимся контрастным объектом. Например, человек радуется тому, что купил недорого какую-то вещь в магазине, но перестаёт радоваться после того, как узнаёт, что в соседнем магазине эта же вещь стоит в 2 раза дешевле.
• The effect of moral trust - a person about whom it is known that he does not have prejudices, has great chances of showing prejudices in the future. In other words, if everyone (including himself) considers a person to be sinless, then he will have the illusion that his every action will also be sinless.
• The effect of pseudo-confidence is the tendency to make decisions that avoid risk, if the expected result is positive, but to make risky decisions to avoid a negative outcome.
• The effect of a narrow framework - using too narrow an approach to describe a situation or problem. The effect of the framework - different conclusions depending on how the data are presented.
• The effect of focusing is an error in predictions, which occurs when people pay too much attention to any one aspect of a phenomenon; causes errors in correctly predicting the utility of a future outcome. For example, focusing on who is to blame for a possible nuclear war distracts from the fact that everyone will suffer.

Distortions related to probabilities and stereotypes

Many of these cognitive impairments are often examined in relation to how they affect business and how they affect experimental research.

• The illusion of clustering is a tendency to see patterns where there are none.
• The illusion of correlation is an erroneous belief in the interrelation of certain actions and results.
• Distortion associated with breeding is a distortion in experimental data that is related to the way in which the data were collected.
• Каскад доступной информации — самоусиливающийся процесс, в ходе которого коллективная вера во что-то становится всё более убедительной за счёт нарастающего повторения в публичном дискурсе («повторяйте нечто достаточно долго и это станет правдой»).
• Недооценка возвращения величины к среднему значению — тенденция ожидать, что экстраординарное поведение системы продолжится.
• Отклонение в сторону позитивного исхода — тенденция переоценивать при предсказании вероятность хороших вещей.
• Отклонение, связанное с оптимизмом — тенденция систематически переоценивать и быть сверхоптимистичным относительно шансов успеха планируемых действий.
• Отклонение, связанное со вниманием — пренебрежение релевантной информацией при суждении о корреляции или ассоциации.
• Player error is the tendency to believe that individual random events are influenced by previous random events.
• The fallacy in the spirit of the apt shooter from Texas - the choice or adjustment of the hypothesis after the data are collected, making it impossible to test the hypothesis honestly.
• Error of assessment justification (English) Russian. - ignoring or insufficient use of basic a priori information under the influence of the specifics of the case under consideration ^[4] .
• The error of the completeness of the distribution is the tendency to believe that the closer the mean value to the given value, the narrower the distribution of the data set.
• The error of coincidence is a tendency to believe that more special cases are all the more likely than they occur more often.
• Inaccuracy associated with games - analysis of problems associated with loss of chances, using a narrow set of games.
• Приукрашивание прошлого — тенденция оценивать прошлые события более позитивно, чем они воспринимались в тот момент, когда на самом деле происходили.
• Ошибка выжившего — возможность недооценивать свою уязвимость на основании своего выживания в тех или иных ситуациях, в действительности объясняющегося лишь законами вероятности и естественным отбором.
• Стереотипизация — ожидание от члена группы определённых характеристик, без знания какой-либо дополнительной информации о его индивидуальности.
• Субъективное придание значимости — восприятие чего-либо, как истинного, если верования субъекта требуют, чтобы это было истинным. Сюда также входит восприятие совпадений как взаимосвязи.
• Функциональная закреплённость — использование предмета в каком-то одном качестве препятствует последующему использованию его в ином качестве в этой же текущей ситуации.
• Хоторнский эффект — феномен, состоящий в том, что люди, наблюдаемые в ходе исследования, временно изменяют своё поведение или производительность. Пример: повышение производительности труда на заводе, когда приезжает комиссия по исследованию производительности труда на этом заводе.
• Эвристика доступности — оценка как более вероятного того, что более доступно в памяти, то есть уклонение в сторону более яркого, необычного или эмоционально заряженного.
• Эффект воспоминаний — эффект, состоящий в том, что люди помнят больше событий из своей молодости, чем из других жизненных периодов.
• Эффект знания задним числом — иногда называется «Я так и знал, что так будет» (как вариант — «А ведь я говорила…») — склонность воспринимать прошлые события предсказуемыми.
• Эффект недавнего (аберрация близости) — тенденция оценивать значение недавних событий выше, чем более ранних событий.
• Эффект неоднозначности — избегание вариантов действий, в которых отсутствующая информация делает вероятность «неизвестной».
• Эффект ожидания наблюдателя — этот эффект возникает, когда исследователь ожидает определённого результата и бессознательно манипулирует ходом эксперимента или неправильно интерпретирует данные, чтобы обнаружить этот результат (см. эффект ожиданий субъекта).
• Эффект первенства — тенденция переоценивать изначальные события более, чем последующие события.
• Эффект привязки — особенность принятия численных решений человеком, вызывающая иррациональные смещения ответов в сторону числа, попавшего в сознание перед принятием решения.
• The effect of overconfidence is the tendency to overestimate your own abilities.
• The effect of subadditivity is the tendency to evaluate the probability of a whole as less than the probability of its constituent parts.
• The effect of the telescope - this effect is that recent events seem more distant, and more distant events - closer in time.

Socially caused distortions

Most of these distortions are attributed to attribution errors.

• The phenomenon of "just peace" is the tendency of people to believe that the world is "just" and, therefore, people get "what they deserve." ^[five]
• The illusion of asymmetric insight - it seems to a person that his knowledge of his loved ones exceeds their knowledge of him.
• The illusion of transparency - people overestimate the ability of others to understand them, and they also overestimate their ability to understand others. ^[6]
• Distortion in the assessment of the homogeneity of members of another group - people perceive members of their group as relatively more diverse than members of other groups.
• Distortion in the assessment of the role of the subject of action - the tendency in explaining the behavior of other people is excessively emphasizing the influence of their professional qualities and underestimate the impact of the situation (see also the fundamental attribution error). However, pairing this distortion is the opposite tendency in evaluating one's own actions, in which people overestimate the influence of situations on them and underestimate the influence of their own qualities.
• The distortion in favor of their group is the tendency of people to give preference to those whom they consider to be a member of their own group.
• Distortion due to projection is the tendency to unconsciously assume that other people share the same as the subject, thoughts, beliefs, values ​​and attitudes.
• Distortion in connection with the formulation of the law - this form of cultural distortion is connected with the fact that writing a certain law in the form of a mathematical formula creates the illusion of its real existence.
• Distortion in one's own benefit, Distortion of self-exaltation is a tendency to recognize greater responsibility for success than for defeat. This may also manifest itself as the tendency of people to present ambiguous information in a favorable way for themselves (See also Distortion in favor of their group.)
• Distortion in describing character traits is the tendency of people to perceive themselves as relatively changeable in terms of personal qualities, behavior and mood, while at the same time they perceive others as much more predictable.
• System justification is the tendency to protect and maintain the status quo, that is, the tendency to prefer the existing social, political and economic structure, and to deny change even at the cost of sacrificing individual and collective interests.
• Self-fulfilling prophecy - the tendency to engage in those activities that will lead to results that (consciously or not) will confirm our beliefs. ^[7]
• Herd instinct is a common tendency to accept opinions and follow the behavior of the majority in order to feel safe and avoid conflicts (see also Effect of joining the majority).
• The fundamental attribution error is the tendency of people to explain other people's behavior by their personal qualities, underestimating situational factors, and at the same time overestimate the role and strength of situational influences on their own behavior, underestimating the personal aspect (see also Distortion in the assessment of the role of the subject of the action, group attribution error , the effect of positivity and the effect of negativity.) ^[8]
• The effect of Dunning-Kruger - when people are incompetent in their chosen strategies for achieving success, they experience a double blow: they not only come to erroneous conclusions and make bad choices, but also their incompetence makes it impossible for them to realize this. Instead, they are left with the mistaken impression that everything is in order. (See also Lake Wobegon effect and over-confidence effect.) ^[9]
• The Lady Macbeth Effect (also called the “Pontius Pilate Effect”) is an imaginary connection between moral and physical cleanliness that encourages people who feel a sense of shame to wash away, “wash off” imaginary dirt from themselves. ^[ten]
• The Forer effect (as well as the Barnum effect) is a tendency to appreciate the accuracy of the descriptions of one’s personality, as if they were deliberately forged specifically for them, but which in reality are general enough to be applied to a very large number of people. For example, horoscopes. ^[eleven]
• The effect of Lake Vobegon is the human tendency to spread flattering beliefs about yourself and consider yourself above average. (see also worse-than-average effect and over-reliance).
• The halo effect - takes place when one person is perceived by another and consists in that the positive and negative features of a person “flow”, from the point of view of the perceiver, from one area of ​​his personality to another. (see also the stereotype of physical attractiveness). ^[12]
• The effect of a first impression is the influence of an opinion about a person, which was formed in the subject in the first minutes at the first meeting, on a further assessment of the person’s activities and personality. They are also considered to be a series of errors often committed by researchers when using the observation method along with the halo effect and others. ^[13]
• The effect of the winning party is the tendency of voters to change their opinion in favor of the winning party ^[14] .
• The effect of fake consensus is the tendency of people to overestimate the extent to which other people agree with them. ^[15]

• The effect of egocentricity - it occurs when people consider themselves more responsible for the result of certain collective actions than an outside observer finds.

Memory Error Distortions

• Benefactor — perception of oneself as responsible for desired outcomes, but not responsible for undesirable ones. (Term proposed by Greenwald (1980), see also Distortion of self-exaltation .)
• Seeming consistency is a wrong recollection of one's past positions and behavior as being reminiscent of current positions and behavior.
• Cryptomnesia is a form of misidentification of authorship , when a memory is mistaken for the result of imagination. For example, a person may feel that he himself wrote a joke, while, in fact, he already heard it and simply remembered. ^[sixteen]
• Egocentric distortion - the memory of the past in a self-exalting manner, for example, the memory of exam scores is better than they were, and the caught fish is greater than it was.
• False memory - a violation of memory, expressed in false memories. ^[17]
• Retrospective distortion - filtering the memory of past events through current knowledge. At the same time, events look more predictable than they were in reality. It is also known as the 'I-All-That-Knew' effect.
• Suggestibility is a form of misrepresentation of authorship , when ideas that the questioner hinted at are misinterpreted as recalled.