Analysis of technological risk Standard values of technological risk

1. Standard risk values

Risk regulation is a complex problem affecting social, economic, technical, psychological and biomedical aspects.
A practical tool for studying the hazard level of an object
is a quantitative risk analysis. Risk analysis includes the following steps:
- the construction of various models that do not contradict the laws of nature, the criteria for the occurrence and development of dangerous incidents,
accidents and disasters;
- construction of normative risk indicators using mathematical models and statistical data and comparing them with actual ones.
Level of safety and risk, satisfying society, choice
strategies to ensure it, taking into account the development of the economy, investment intentions in certain territories and regions,
based on certain principles. Based on the analysis of international and domestic practice, several such
principles:
- The principle of the absolute priority of safety, maintaining health over any other elements of the quality of life;
- the principle of acceptable danger and risk, according to which
the lower acceptable and upper desired security levels are set, and in this interval, taking into account socio-economic and other
appearances, an acceptable level of safety and risk is selected;
- the principle of minimal danger, according to which the level of risk is set as low as feasible, based on the assumption that any costs for protecting the person and
the environment are justified;
- the principle of a consistent approach to absolute security, i.e., to zero risk, as well as other principles representing
a combination or development of the above.

2. Acceptable risk. Risk assessment

Until recently, the principle of zero risk was based on the concept of security in our country. The Chernobyl accident showed the illegitimacy of this approach.
The concept of absolute security is now recognized.
inadequate to the internal laws of the technosphere due to the impossibility of achieving absolute security. In Russia, as in most countries
the international community, the concept of acceptable risk, sometimes called the concept of non-zero risk, is accepted.
An acceptable level of safety and risk is required to establish
scientific analysis of social, economic, environmental,
demographic, technogenic and other factors determining the development of society, taking into account the relationships of interdependencies.
Qualitative conduct of such an analysis is possible if there are criteria for choosing the optimal level of safety and risk within those
requirements that are presented to him by society.
As such criteria can be considered [9]:
- gross national product (GNP);
- quality of life (QOL);
- life expectancy (life expectancy);
- the cost of increasing life expectancy
(JLL).
Of all types of risk, usually the main focus is on social risk. Quantitatively, it is expressed by the probability that in an accident or
in another event, the number of people who have suffered damage (poor health, fatal injuries, etc.) will be no less than a certain amount.

The construction of criteria curves for social risk is carried out in the presence of information on the frequency of occurrence of possible
accidents of various types, characterized by the corresponding number and nature of the release, as well as damage expressed by the number of fatal injuries of people.
An example of social risk criteria is shown in Fig. eleven.

Fig. 11. Social risk criteria
Difficulties in assessing social risk usually arise due to the lack of sufficient data.
For analysis and justification it is advisable to use graphical dependencies (Fig. 12).

Fig. 12. Graphic dependencies to justify the level of acceptable risk:
B - risk level in value terms (in terms of monetary equivalent);
G - the cost of preventing or reducing the level of risk;

σ - expected level
impacts; σ eo - point of economic optimum;

σ T1, σ T2 - the boundaries of the interval
exposure levels, respectively, with accepted and achievable prospects-
effective technologies and effective measures to prevent lesions;

σ d1 - lower acceptable safety limit, i.e. exposure level corresponding to
nude risk limit;

σ d2 - exposure level corresponding to the level of the risk target

An acceptable level of risk is chosen within the range of the risk limit - the goal of risk according to the results of socio-economic analysis carried out
according to a well-known pattern of costs - benefits. This refers to the cost of preventing damage, expressed primarily in poor health
and deaths in various fields of human activity. The benefit is usually estimated by the number of saved lives in
per a certain amount of cash investments.
To justify the acceptable risk, the approach used in the review may also be useful.