Lecture
The world economy, or the global economy, is usually represented as an economy that is based on the economic systems of all countries of the world, national economies. Also, the world economy can be represented as the economy of the world community and national economies - as the economic systems of regional communities that create a common global system. The world economy can be assessed differently, for example, depending on the model used, and its assessment was made in a certain currency, such as the US dollar, euro or others.
The term "world economy" is inseparable from the geography and ecology of the Earth, and therefore, in its own way, is used incorrectly, since the definitions and representations of the "world economy" vary considerably and they should at least exclude any consideration of resources or values based outside the Earth. For example, while attempts could be made to calculate the cost of untapped mining capabilities in unclaimed territory in Antarctica at the present time, the same capabilities on Mars will not be considered part of the global economy - even if these capabilities were being realized now - and could be considered only in the same way as uncreated intellectual property.
Without taking into account the minimum limit described above regarding the creation of value in the process of production, consumption and exchange on planet Earth, the definitions, representations, models and estimates of the world economy vary considerably. Since it is common to limit the issues of the world economy exclusively to human business activity, the world economy is usually valued in monetary terms, even in the absence of an efficient market to evaluate certain goods or services, or in cases where there is a lack of independent research or lack of cooperation with side of the government makes such an assessment difficult. Typical examples are illicit drugs and other black market products, which by any standard are part of the global economy, but for which, by definition, there is no legal market in any form.
However, even in cases where there is a transparent and efficient market in order to establish a monetary value, economists usually do not use the current exchange rate or official exchange rate to convert the monetary units of this market into a unit of assessment of the global economy, since exchange rates often do not reflect international value, for example, in cases where the volume or price of transactions is regulated by the government.
Therefore, as a rule, the method of valuation based on the purchasing power of currencies is used to convert the national market monetary units into a single currency to assess the global economy. This method is used to evaluate international business activity in terms of real cash income. However, the global economy can be appreciated and expressed in many more ways. In this case, however, it remains unclear, for example, how many of the 7.0 billion people in the world have most of the business activity, calculated using the described assessment methods.
Thus, in 2011, the largest economies in the world (with a volume of more than 2 trillion dollars or 1.25 trillion euros), taking into account estimates based on nominal GDP are: USA, China, Japan, Germany, France, Great Britain, Brazil, and Italy. The largest economies in the world (with a volume of more than 2 trillion dollars or 1.25 trillion euros) using the purchasing power parity estimation method (PPP) were the United States, China, Japan, India, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom, Brazil, and France .
Taking into account market exchange rates, from 1980 to 1990, the GDP of 112 countries in the world increased by 10.7 trillion. dollars. At the same time, the GDP of 34 countries of the world decreased by $ 276.9 billion over the same period. The five largest countries in which GDP fell were: Argentina — GDP — 24% of the total reduction, Saudi Arabia — 17%, Nigeria –11%, Venezuela — 8%, and Vietnam — 8%. In assessing the purchasing power parity of currencies, the 145 countries of the world increased by 12.1 trillion from 1980 to 1990. dollars. GDP of 2 countries of the world decreased by 3.5 billion dollars. These two countries: Lebanon - 70% of the total reduction and Libya - 30%.
Taking into account market exchange rates, from 1990 to 2000, the GDP of 122 countries in the world increased by 10.7 trillion. The GDP of 29 countries over the same period decreased by $ 94.2 billion. The five largest "sponsors" of the reduction in world GDP: Italy - 37% of the total reduction, Finland - 18%, Bulgaria - 9%, Algeria - 8% and Democratic Republic of Congo - 5%.
Based on purchasing power parity, from 1990 to 2000, the GDP of 148 countries of the world grew by 16.9 trillion. dollars, and the cumulative gross product of 3 countries of the world decreased by $ 17.8 billion. These three countries: Bulgaria - 64% of the total reduction, the Democratic Republic of the Congo - 29% and Sierra Leone - 7%.
Taking into account market exchange rates, from 2000 to 2006, GDP 176 increased by 17.4 trillion. The five largest “sponsors” of global growth are the USA - 20% of the total growth, China - 9%, Germany - 6%, Great Britain - 6%, and France - 5%. The GDP of 4 countries in the world fell in aggregate by $ 94.2 billion. The three largest countries in which GDP fell were Japan: 80% of the total decline, Argentina 19% and Uruguay 1%.
Based on the purchasing power parity of currencies, the GDP of 180 countries of the world for the period from 2000 to 2006 increased by 19.2 trillion. The five largest “sponsors” of global development are: the USA - 18%, China - 17%, India - 6%, Japan - 5%, and Russia - 4%.
The nominal GDP of 183 countries in the world during 2007 increased by 6.4 trillion. dollars. China accounted for 12% of world economic growth, while the US accounted for only 10%, Germany 6%, and Great Britain 6%.
During 2008, the GDP of 171 countries of the world increased by 5.8 trillion. dollars. China accounted for one sixth of global economic growth. The GDP of 11 countries in the world as a whole declined by $ 267 billion. Britain accounted for half of the reduction, and South Korea — 40%. Although the crisis affected most countries of the world in 2008, it began to influence the global economy only from the second half of the year, as a result of which in many countries GDP grew by the end of the year.
Taking into account market exchange rates, the GDP of 127 countries of the world in 2009 declined in aggregate by 4.1 trillion. United Kingdom was the largest victim - 12% of the total reduction, Russia - 11%, and Germany - 8%. GDP of 56 countries increased by $ 767.1 billion. China accounted for 61% of growth, Japan - 20%, and Indonesia - 4%.
Based on the purchasing power parity of currencies, the GDP of 79 countries of the world decreased by 1.4 trillion. dollars during 2009. The United States has become the largest victim - 18% of the total reduction, while Japan -17%, Russia - 10%. The GDP of 104 countries of the world has grown by 1.5 trillion in aggregate. The share of China in the overall economic growth was 56%, India - 17%, and Indonesia - 3%.
Taking into account market exchange rates in 2010, GDP 148 increased by 5.3 trillion. dollars. The five largest “sponsors” of global product expansion: China - 17%, USA - 10%, Brazil - 9%, Japan - 8% and India - 5%. The GDP of 35 countries of the world for the same period decreased by $ 338.5 billion. The five largest "culprits" of the global reduction: France - 22%, Italy - 18%, Spain - 17%, Venezuela - 10% and Germany - 7%.
Based on the purchasing power parity of currencies, the GDP of 169 countries of the world increased by 4.2 trillion. dollars during 2010. The five largest “locomotives” of global development in 2010 were China - a share of 25%, the USA - 13%, India - 10%, Japan - 5% and Brazil - 4%. The GDP of 14 countries in the world over the same period decreased by $ 17.8 billion. The main culprits of the reduction are: Greece - 67%, Venezuela - 19%, Romania - 5%, Haiti - 3%, and Croatia - 2%.
In the economic report of the International Monetary Fund for 2010, it was noted that banks were faced with the “wall” of maturing debt, which represents significant risks for the normalization of credit conditions. Meanwhile, the situation with financing was observed slightly improved, and debts amounting to more than 4 trillion. dollars must be refinanced in the next 2 years.
Taking into account market exchange rates, it is expected that global GDP in the period from 2010 to 2016 will increase by 28.7 trillion. dollars or 20 trillion. Euro. Based on purchasing power parity, the aggregate GDP of 183 countries of the world for the same period, as analysts expect, will grow by 29.1 trillion. dollars or 25 trillion. Euro.
The growth rate of the gross world product (VMP) over the past ten years has been constantly changing and determined mainly by the state of the economies of the largest countries in the world, such as the United States, European Union countries, Japan, China and, to some extent, Russia.
The largest by gross domestic product in the world countries as of 2010 are the USA - 26.0% of the gross world product, the countries of the European Union - 28.2%, China - 8.6%, Japan - 8.5%, and India - 2.2%. Russia's GDP is about 2.0% of gross world product.
| years | World GDP y / y,% | US GDP y / y,% | Eurozone GDP y / y,% | Germany's GDP y / y,% | UK GDP y / y,% | Japan's GDP y / y,% | China's GDP y / y,% | Russia's GDP y / y,% |
| 1997 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 9.3 | 1.4 |
| 1998 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | -2,2 | 7,8 | -5,3 |
| 1999 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 7,6 | 6.4 |
| 2000 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 8.4 | 10.0 |
| 2001 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 8.3 | 5.1 |
| 2002 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 0.3 | 9.1 | 4.7 |
| 2003 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | -0,2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 10.1 | 7.4 |
| 2004 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 10.1 | 7.1 |
| 2005 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 10.4 | 6.4 |
| 2006 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 11.6 | 7.4 |
| 2007 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 11.4 | 8.1 |
| 2008 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 8.9 | 5.6 |
| 2009 | -2,1 | -2,6 | -4,3 | -4.9 | -4.9 | -5,3 | 8.7 | -7.9 |
| 2010 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 10.1 | 4.0 |
| 2011 1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 8.9 | 4.2 |
| 2012 1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1,3 | 2.0 | 8.6 | 3.0 |
1 - HSBC forecast, for Germany - Ministry of Economy
Key macroeconomic indicators (2010 data)
Energy (2010 data)
World Trade (2009 data)
World communications
According to the latest PwC World in 2050 study, economic growth is moving to fast-developing countries. Considering GDP estimates based on purchasing power parity (PPP), by 2020 the G7 developing countries (E7) (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) are likely to overtake the developed G7 countries (USA, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada).
If GDP estimates at market rates of exchange (ROK) are used in forecasts, then the world order will change more slowly, but also steadily - the countries of E7 will overtake the G7 approximately in 2032. In the same year, China will overtake the United States and become the largest economic power in the world, which follows from forecasts based on market exchange rates. If we take as a basis PPP, then this scenario will become real until 2020. So things will develop even though the growth rate of the Chinese economy may after a while slow down somewhat due to the policy aimed at ensuring that Chinese families have no more than one child, and that, catching up with the United States to ensure subsequent growth, China will have to rely more on innovation, not imitation.
The table below lists the main dates when, according to the forecasts of researchers, the G7 countries can overtake the E7 countries. As you can see, this always happens later in the case of estimates based on market exchange rates, and earlier, in the case of forecasts based on PPPs. However, even if the ROCK is taken as a basis, the process of the new world order replacing the new one over the next four decades is inevitable. Despite the fact that the exact dates of such a redistribution of forces will depend on many factors, and many rapidly developing countries may not realize their growth potential, in general, this development model is quite reasonable, provided there are no political or environmental shocks that constantly are shifting the world from the current trajectory of economic development.
According to forecasts, the most significant increase in the share of global GDP will be in India, and not in China. In 2009, India’s share in global GDP, determined on the basis of ROC, was only 2%. By 2050, its share could grow to about 13%. As follows from forecasts based on estimates of GDP based on PPP, India may overtake Japan as early as 2011, as well as the United States by 2050. India’s promotion in the GDP ranking will be much slower if market exchange rates are taken as a basis, since at present the price level in the country is much lower than in developed G7 countries. But even with the definition of GDP based on the ROC, India will have to overtake Japan by 2030, and by 2050 it will almost catch up with the United States.
From the results of the analysis, it can be concluded that by 2050 Australia and Argentina may disappear from the list of G-20 countries, while Vietnam and Nigeria, on the contrary, have the potential to enter it. By 2050, Indonesia can rise from sixteenth place in terms of GDP, which it occupied in 2009, to eighth place, overtaking not only Italy (as shown in the table), but also France, the United Kingdom and Germany over the next 40 years. Based on the parameters used in the forecast, we can conclude that in 2050, the United Kingdom would hardly keep in the list of the 10 largest economies, taking ninth place in GDP, determined based on market exchange rates, and tenth in taking as a basis for GDP, determined on the basis of PPP.
| Challengers | Estimated dates of redistribution of forces based on estimates of GDP at PPP | Estimated dates of the redistribution of forces based on an estimate of GDP by ROC |
E7 instead of G7 | 2017 | 2032 |
China instead of the USA | 2018 | 2032 |
India instead of Japan | 2011 | 2028 |
Russia instead of Germany | 2014 | 2042 |
Brazil instead of Great Britain | 2013 | 2023 |
Mexico instead of France | 2028 | 2046 |
Indonesia instead of Italy | 2030 | 2039 |
Turkey instead of Canada | 2020 | 2035 |
Source: PwC
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World economy
Terms: World economy