The main provisions of the theory of risk

Subject, BJD method, its structure and content

Life safety (BSS) is a science that studies the general properties and patterns of the impact of hazards and harm on humans and develops the basis for protecting him and the environment.

Experience shows that any activity is potentially dangerous. This statement is axiomatic. At the same time, it is recognized that the level of hazard (risk) can be controlled. This statement led to the concept of acceptable risk.

It is based on the understanding that absolute security is unattainable.

Safety is a state of activity in which, with a certain probability, the manifestation of hazards is excluded.

Security is the goal, and Belarusian Railways is the means, ways, methods of achieving it.

BJD is a scientific discipline that studies hazards and protection against them.

The subject of her study is one side of activity (labor), namely: the danger in order to protect against them. Belarusian Railways solves three interrelated tasks:

1. Identification of hazards, i.e. image recognition with indication of quantitative characteristics and hazard coordinates

2. Protection against hazards based on cost-benefit comparisons.

3. Elimination of possible (based on the concept of residual risk) negative hazards.

The history of human development from the earliest stages is marked by attention to the conditions of activity, including the protection of human health.

Activity is a necessary condition for the existence of human society.

Labor is the highest form of activity.

According to philosophers, the most adequate definition of a person is Homo agens, i.e. a person acting.

The definition of activities is given in TSB. The forms of activity and labor are diverse. They cover practical, intellectual and spiritual processes taking place in everyday life, social, cultural, industrial, scientific and other spheres of life.

The model of the process of activity in the most general form can be represented as consisting of two elements: a person and an environment, which have direct and feedback connections.

Feedbacks are due to the general law of reactivity of the material world. The system "person - environment" is dual-purpose.

One goal is to achieve a certain effect, the second is to eliminate unwanted consequences.

The objective of the course "Life Safety" is to teach how to ensure comfortable conditions for the activities of people at all stages of their life under the influence of negative factors on humans and the environment and to eliminate negative consequences caused by the implementation of residual risk.

The system "Man - Habitat" ("H - CO") consists of the following elements: man - machine - work space - household environment - work environment - urban environment - environment - environment in emergency situations of peace and wartime. Elements of the CH - CO system, their interrelationships are shown in Fig. 1.

Fig. 1. Equivalent scheme for the analysis of the "CH - CO" system (the structure of the interrelationships of the elements of the human vital activity system).

The Belarusian Railways course consists of 4 sections:

1. Theoretical foundations of Belarusian Railways
2. Natural aspects of Belarusian Railways (environmental protection)
3. Belarusian Railways in production conditions (labor protection, economic safety)
4. Belarusian Railways in emergency situations (civil defense)
5. Ergonomics

Absolute safety cannot be achieved in any kind of activity. Therefore, we can formulate the following conclusion: any activity is potentially dangerous.

V. Marshall gives the following definition: risk - frequency of occurrence of hazards.

The most general definition is recognized as follows: risk is a quantitative assessment of the hazard.

Quantitative assessment is the ratio of the number of certain adverse consequences to their possible number in a certain period. When determining the risk, it is necessary to indicate the class of consequences, i.e. answer the question: the risk of what?

Risk is formally a frequency. But in essence, there is a significant difference between these concepts, since in relation to security problems, one has to speak with a certain degree of convention about the possible number of adverse consequences.

Before proceeding to consider other stages of the risk problem, we will give examples.

Example I. Determine the risk R pr death of a person, in the production in our country for 1 year, if it is known that die each year n = 14 thousand people, and the number of employees is approximately N = 138 million people..:

As an example, we will give foreign data characterizing individual risk.

Individual risk of fatal outcome per year due to various reasons (according to data relating to the entire US population):

Traditional safety technology is based on a categorical imperative - to ensure safety, to prevent any accidents. As practice shows, such a concept is inadequate to the laws of the technosphere. The demand for absolute security, captivating in its humanity, can turn into a tragedy for people, because it is impossible to ensure zero risk in operating systems.

The modern world rejected the concept of absolute security and came to the concept of acceptable (permissible) risk, the essence of which is the pursuit of such little security that society accepts at a given period of time.

Acceptable risk combines technical, economic, social and political aspects and represents a compromise between the level of security and the possibility of achieving it.

First of all, it should be borne in mind that the economic possibilities for increasing the safety of technical systems are not unlimited.

Excessive spending on improving safety can cause damage to the social sphere, for example, worsening medical care.

As costs increase, technical risk decreases, but social risk increases.

The total risk has a minimum at a certain ratio between investments in the technical and social spheres. This circumstance must be taken into account when choosing a risk with which society is still forced to put up.

In some countries, for example in the Netherlands, acceptable risks are established by law. The maximum acceptable level of individual risk of death is usually 10 2 per year.

The values ​​of the degree of risk are assessed for various industries in order to introduce the economic mechanism of measures for labor protection. Its essence lies in the following - the higher the degree of risk at the enterprises of a particular industry, the higher the payment (compensation to workers) for the risk. This economic policy in the field of labor protection is implemented at the federal level in labor protection legislation.